5 of 5 models favor the 49ers.
On average the models have the 49ers by 9.4 points, a 78% win chance.
Final: 49ers 35, Dolphins 13.
Closest: ESPN FPI (49ers by 14.5, missed by 7.5). 5 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was right.
Reconstructed: Week 2 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The 49ers won 35–13. Purdy threw for 287 yards and 2 touchdowns. Our call (49ers, Strong) was right.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Dolphins | 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 284 | 382 |
| Passing yards | 182 | 287 |
| Rushing yards | 102 | 95 |
| Sacked | 4 (15 yards) | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 0 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | 49ers by 9.4 ✓ | 78% | 12.6 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | 49ers by 6.8 ✓ | 70% | 15.2 |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | 49ers by 8.3 ✓ | 77% | 13.7 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | 49ers by 8.2 ✓ | 73% | 13.8 |
| ESPN FPI ClosestESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | 49ers by 14.5 ✓ | 91% | 7.5 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | 49ers ✓ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | 49ers by 12.5 | — | 9.5 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 2 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 2; league rank in brackets.
| Dolphins | 49ers | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | −0.04 (22nd) | +0.11 (4th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.04 (26th) | +0.06 (7th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | 0.00 (13th) | −0.05 (4th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | −0.01 (26th) | +0.09 (10th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.09 (28th) | 0.00 (4th) |
| Offense success rate | 42% (30th) | 48% (3rd) |
The Dolphins won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Dec 22, 2024Week 16, 2024 | Dolphins 29, 49ers 17at Miami |
| Dec 4, 2022Week 13, 2022 | 49ers 33, Dolphins 17at San Francisco |
| Oct 11, 2020Week 5, 2020 | Dolphins 43, 49ers 17at San Francisco |
| Nov 27, 2016Week 12, 2016 | Dolphins 31, 49ers 24at Miami |
| Dec 9, 2012Week 14, 2012 | 49ers 27, Dolphins 13at San Francisco |