3 of 5 models favor the Steelers.
On average the models have the Steelers by 1.2 points, a 54% win chance.
Final: Browns 27, Steelers 24.
Closest: SRS (Browns by 0.6, missed by 2.4). 2 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was wrong.
Reconstructed: Week 4 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Browns won 27–24. Watson threw for 268 yards and 1 touchdown. Our call (Steelers, Toss-up) was wrong.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Steelers | Browns |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 361 | 372 |
| Passing yards | 269 | 260 |
| Rushing yards | 92 | 112 |
| Sacked | 5 (30 yards) | 2 (8 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 2 | 1 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Steelers by 1.2 ✗ | 54% | 4.2 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Steelers by 2.4 ✗ | 57% | 5.4 |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Steelers by 1.5 ✗ | 55% | 4.5 |
| SRS ClosestSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Browns by 0.6 ✓ | 52% | 2.4 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Steelers by 1.4 ✗ | 55% | 4.4 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Browns ✓ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Steelers by 2.5 | — | 5.5 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 4 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 4; league rank in brackets.
| Steelers | Browns | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | −0.10 (27th) | −0.01 (16th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.09 (30th) | −0.02 (19th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | +0.01 (20th) | −0.01 (16th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | −0.09 (30th) | +0.11 (14th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.07 (15th) | −0.22 (32nd) |
| Offense success rate | 42% (24th) | 43% (19th) |
The Browns won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Dec 28, 2025Week 17, 2025 | Browns 13, Steelers 6at Cleveland |
| Oct 12, 2025Week 6, 2025 | Steelers 23, Browns 9at Pittsburgh |
| Dec 8, 2024Week 14, 2024 | Steelers 27, Browns 14at Pittsburgh |
| Nov 21, 2024Week 12, 2024 | Browns 24, Steelers 19at Cleveland |
| Nov 19, 2023Week 11, 2023 | Browns 13, Steelers 10at Cleveland |