5 of 5 models favor the Ravens.
On average the models have the Ravens by 9.6 points, a 79% win chance.
Final: Ravens 24, Titans 18.
Closest: Our model (Ravens by 7.9, missed by 1.9). 5 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was right.
Reconstructed: Week 4 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Ravens won 24–18. Jackson threw for 222 yards and 2 touchdowns. Our call (Ravens, Strong) was right.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Titans | Ravens |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 297 | 384 |
| Passing yards | 212 | 272 |
| Rushing yards | 85 | 112 |
| Sacked | 1 (10 yards) | 2 (13 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 0 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Ravens by 9.6 ✓ | 79% | 3.6 |
| Our model Experimental ClosestOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Ravens by 7.9 ✓ | 73% | 1.9 |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Ravens by 10.9 ✓ | 83% | 4.9 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Ravens by 9.2 ✓ | 75% | 3.2 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Ravens by 10.5 ✓ | 84% | 4.5 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Ravens ✓ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Ravens by 11.5 | — | 5.5 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 4 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 4; league rank in brackets.
| Titans | Ravens | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | −0.09 (25th) | +0.08 (7th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.05 (25th) | +0.07 (7th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | +0.04 (24th) | −0.01 (15th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | −0.05 (28th) | +0.18 (6th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.06 (14th) | −0.04 (8th) |
| Offense success rate | 42% (22nd) | 48% (4th) |
The Ravens won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Oct 15, 2023Week 6, 2023 | Ravens 24, Titans 16neutral site |
| Jan 10, 2021Wild Card, 2020 | Ravens 20, Titans 13at Tennessee |
| Nov 22, 2020Week 11, 2020 | Titans 30, Ravens 24at Baltimore |
| Jan 11, 2020Divisional, 2019 | Titans 28, Ravens 12at Baltimore |
| Oct 14, 2018Week 6, 2018 | Ravens 21, Titans 0at Tennessee |