5 of 5 models favor the Seahawks.
On average the models have the Seahawks by 8.2 points, a 75% win chance.
Final: Seahawks 30, Chargers 23.
Closest of our models: ESPN FPI (Seahawks by 6.8, missed by 0.2). 5 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was right.
Reconstructed: Week 4 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Seahawks won 30–23. Darnold threw for 168 yards and 2 touchdowns. Our call (Seahawks, Strong) was right.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Chargers | Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 301 | 286 |
| Passing yards | 154 | 148 |
| Rushing yards | 147 | 138 |
| Sacked | 4 (35 yards) | 3 (20 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 2 | 1 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Seahawks by 8.2 ✓ | 75% | 1.2 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Seahawks by 4.9 ✓ | 65% | 2.1 |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Seahawks by 11.1 ✓ | 83% | 4.1 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Seahawks by 10 ✓ | 77% | 3.0 |
| ESPN FPI ClosestESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Seahawks by 6.8 ✓ | 74% | 0.2 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Seahawks ✓ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Seahawks by 7 | — | 0.0 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 4 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
And 1 more on the report.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 4; league rank in brackets.
| Chargers | Seahawks | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | −0.10 (29th) | +0.11 (5th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.12 (32nd) | +0.02 (12th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | −0.02 (10th) | −0.08 (2nd) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | −0.08 (29th) | +0.17 (8th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.19 (29th) | −0.18 (26th) |
| Offense success rate | 41% (26th) | 45% (15th) |
The Chargers won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Oct 23, 2022Week 7, 2022 | Seahawks 37, Chargers 23at Los Angeles |
| Nov 4, 2018Week 9, 2018 | Chargers 25, Seahawks 17at Seattle |
| Sep 14, 2014Week 2, 2014 | Chargers 30, Seahawks 21at Los Angeles |
| Sep 26, 2010Week 3, 2010 | Seahawks 27, Chargers 20at Seattle |
| Dec 24, 2006Week 16, 2006 | Chargers 20, Seahawks 17at Seattle |