3 of 5 models favor the Giants.
On average the models have the Giants by 0.4 points, a 51% win chance.
Final: Giants 36, Cardinals 24.
Closest: Elo (Giants by 2.7, missed by 9.3). 3 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was right.
Reconstructed: Week 4 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Giants won 36–24. Winston threw for 250 yards and 3 touchdowns. Our call (Giants, Toss-up) was right.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Cardinals | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 270 | 319 |
| Passing yards | 147 | 232 |
| Rushing yards | 123 | 87 |
| Sacked | 2 (19 yards) | 4 (18 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 3 | 2 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Giants by 0.4 ✓ | 51% | 11.6 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Cardinals by 1.4 ✗ | 54% | 13.4 |
| Elo ClosestEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Giants by 2.7 ✓ | 60% | 9.3 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Giants by 0.9 ✓ | 53% | 11.1 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Cardinals by 0.8 ✗ | 53% | 12.8 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Giants ✓ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Cardinals by 2.5 | — | 14.5 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 4 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 4; league rank in brackets.
| Cardinals | Giants | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | −0.01 (15th) | −0.10 (30th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | +0.05 (10th) | −0.03 (22nd) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | +0.06 (26th) | +0.07 (27th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.11 (11th) | +0.01 (22nd) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.05 (12th) | −0.10 (20th) |
| Offense success rate | 46% (9th) | 42% (21st) |
The Cardinals won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
| Sep 17, 2023Week 2, 2023 | Giants 31, Cardinals 28at Arizona |
| Dec 13, 2020Week 14, 2020 | Cardinals 26, Giants 7at New York |
| Oct 20, 2019Week 7, 2019 | Cardinals 27, Giants 21at New York |
| Dec 24, 2017Week 16, 2017 | Cardinals 23, Giants 0at Arizona |
| Sep 14, 2014Week 2, 2014 | Cardinals 25, Giants 14at New York |