3 of 5 models favor the Rams.
On average the models have the Rams by 2.3 points, a 58% win chance.
Final: Rams 24, Eagles 20.
Closest: ESPN FPI (Rams by 3.8, missed by 0.2). 3 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was right.
Reconstructed: Week 4 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Rams won 24–20. Stafford threw for 317 yards. Our call (Rams, Toss-up) was right.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Rams | Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 415 | 172 |
| Passing yards | 309 | 68 |
| Rushing yards | 106 | 104 |
| Sacked | 1 (8 yards) | 4 (25 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 2 | 0 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Rams by 2.3 ✓ | 58% | 1.7 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Rams by 2.8 ✓ | 59% | 1.2 |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Eagles by 0.3 ✗ | 51% | 4.3 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Rams by 3 ✓ | 59% | 1.0 |
| ESPN FPI ClosestESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Rams by 3.8 ✓ | 64% | 0.2 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Eagles ✗ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Rams by 3.5 | — | 0.5 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 4 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 4; league rank in brackets.
| Rams | Eagles | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | +0.08 (6th) | −0.07 (24th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | 0.00 (15th) | −0.03 (21st) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | −0.08 (3rd) | +0.04 (23rd) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.09 (16th) | −0.02 (26th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.12 (22nd) | −0.05 (9th) |
| Offense success rate | 45% (13th) | 40% (29th) |
The Eagles won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
| Sep 21, 2025Week 3, 2025 | Eagles 33, Rams 26at Philadelphia |
| Jan 19, 2025Divisional, 2024 | Eagles 28, Rams 22at Philadelphia |
| Nov 24, 2024Week 12, 2024 | Eagles 37, Rams 20at Los Angeles |
| Oct 8, 2023Week 5, 2023 | Eagles 23, Rams 14at Los Angeles |
| Sep 20, 2020Week 2, 2020 | Rams 37, Eagles 19at Philadelphia |