3 of 5 models favor the Jaguars.
On average the models have the Jaguars by 1.8 points, a 56% win chance.
Final: Jaguars 22, Bengals 17.
Closest: SRS (Jaguars by 6.2, missed by 1.2). 3 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was right.
Reconstructed: Week 4 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Jaguars won 22–17. Lawrence threw for 227 yards and 1 touchdown. Our call (Jaguars, Toss-up) was right.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Jaguars | Bengals |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 323 | 437 |
| Passing yards | 212 | 414 |
| Rushing yards | 111 | 23 |
| Sacked | 4 (15 yards) | 2 (14 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 2 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Jaguars by 1.8 ✓ | 56% | 3.2 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Bengals by 1.9 ✗ | 56% | 6.9 |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Jaguars by 1.5 ✓ | 55% | 3.5 |
| SRS ClosestSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Jaguars by 6.2 ✓ | 68% | 1.2 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Jaguars by 1.2 ✓ | 55% | 3.8 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Bengals ✗ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Bengals by 2.5 | — | 7.5 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 4 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 4; league rank in brackets.
| Jaguars | Bengals | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | +0.15 (2nd) | +0.05 (10th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | +0.11 (3rd) | +0.05 (9th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | −0.04 (5th) | 0.00 (19th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.21 (3rd) | +0.11 (12th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.02 (6th) | −0.04 (7th) |
| Offense success rate | 49% (2nd) | 45% (11th) |
The Bengals won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
| Sep 14, 2025Week 2, 2025 | Bengals 31, Jaguars 27at Cincinnati |
| Dec 4, 2023Week 13, 2023 | Bengals 34, Jaguars 31at Jacksonville |
| Sep 30, 2021Week 4, 2021 | Bengals 24, Jaguars 21at Cincinnati |
| Oct 4, 2020Week 4, 2020 | Bengals 33, Jaguars 25at Cincinnati |
| Oct 20, 2019Week 7, 2019 | Jaguars 27, Bengals 17at Cincinnati |