4 of 5 models favor the Patriots.
On average the models have the Patriots by 3.9 points, a 63% win chance.
Final: Patriots 20, Steelers 3.
Closest of our models: ESPN FPI (Patriots by 4.3, missed by 12.7). 4 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was right.
Reconstructed: Week 2 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Patriots won 20–3. Maye threw for 208 yards. Our call (Patriots, Lean) was right.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Steelers | Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 235 | 327 |
| Passing yards | 144 | 191 |
| Rushing yards | 91 | 136 |
| Sacked | 4 (43 yards) | 3 (17 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 1 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Patriots by 3.9 ✓ | 63% | 13.1 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Patriots by 4.1 ✓ | 63% | 12.9 |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Patriots by 4.1 ✓ | 64% | 12.9 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Patriots by 3.2 ✓ | 60% | 13.8 |
| ESPN FPI ClosestESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Patriots by 4.3 ✓ | 65% | 12.7 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Steelers ✗ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Patriots by 4.5 | — | 12.5 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 2 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 2; league rank in brackets.
| Steelers | Patriots | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | 0.00 (17th) | −0.04 (23rd) |
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.07 (32nd) | −0.02 (21st) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | −0.07 (2nd) | +0.02 (18th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | −0.05 (29th) | +0.06 (15th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.09 (29th) | −0.13 (32nd) |
| Offense success rate | 42% (32nd) | 44% (21st) |
The Patriots won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Sep 21, 2025Week 3, 2025 | Steelers 21, Patriots 14at New England |
| Dec 7, 2023Week 14, 2023 | Patriots 21, Steelers 18at Pittsburgh |
| Sep 18, 2022Week 2, 2022 | Patriots 17, Steelers 14at Pittsburgh |
| Sep 8, 2019Week 1, 2019 | Patriots 33, Steelers 3at New England |
| Dec 16, 2018Week 15, 2018 | Steelers 17, Patriots 10at Pittsburgh |