4 of 4 models favor the Patriots.
On average the models have the Patriots by 6.9 points, a 71% win chance.
Early prediction, updates weekly until kickoff.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Patriots by 6.9 | 71% |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Patriots by 5.3 | 66% |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Patriots by 8 | 76% |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Patriots by 7.4 | 71% |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. Read in the week of the game. | Available game week | — |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Patriots | — |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Not named yet. The quarterbacks we assume show here in game week: once every earlier game is in, or two days before Week 8's first kickoff.
The official Week 8 injury report isn't out yet. It shows here once nflverse has it, in the week of the game.
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through Week 5 (the games played so far); league rank in brackets.
| Patriots | Dolphins | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | +0.06 (8th) | −0.11 (30th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | +0.04 (12th) | −0.06 (28th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | −0.03 (12th) | +0.05 (24th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.14 (10th) | −0.05 (27th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.12 (20th) | −0.07 (17th) |
| Offense success rate | 45% (13th) | 40% (30th) |
The Dolphins won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Jan 4, 2026Week 18, 2025 | Patriots 38, Dolphins 10at New England |
| Sep 14, 2025Week 2, 2025 | Patriots 33, Dolphins 27at Miami |
| Nov 24, 2024Week 12, 2024 | Dolphins 34, Patriots 15at Miami |
| Oct 6, 2024Week 5, 2024 | Dolphins 15, Patriots 10at New England |
| Oct 29, 2023Week 8, 2023 | Dolphins 31, Patriots 17at Miami |