5 of 5 models favor the Patriots.
On average the models have the Patriots by 8.2 points, a 75% win chance.
Updated until kickoff, then frozen.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
Weather at kickoff: 48°F, sunny, wind 9 mph from the west, little chance of rain.
Forecast: National Weather Service, read Tue, Oct 13 · 10:50 PM CT.
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Patriots by 8.2 | 75% |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Patriots by 6.8 | 70% |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Patriots by 10.6 | 82% |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Patriots by 9.1 | 75% |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Patriots by 6.5 | 73% |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Patriots | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Patriots by 7.5 | — |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Injury statuses as of .
The official injury report, as of Tue, Oct 13 · 9:57 AM CT: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Week 5 report (last filed); Week 6 not filed yet.
Week 5 report (last filed); Week 6 not filed yet.
And 5 more on the report.
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 6; league rank in brackets.
| Jets | Patriots | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | +0.01 (16th) | +0.06 (8th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.04 (22nd) | +0.04 (12th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | −0.05 (7th) | −0.03 (12th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.03 (18th) | +0.14 (10th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.14 (22nd) | −0.12 (20th) |
| Offense success rate | 42% (19th) | 45% (13th) |
The Patriots won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Dec 28, 2025Week 17, 2025 | Patriots 42, Jets 10at New York |
| Nov 13, 2025Week 11, 2025 | Patriots 27, Jets 14at New England |
| Oct 27, 2024Week 8, 2024 | Patriots 25, Jets 22at New England |
| Sep 19, 2024Week 3, 2024 | Jets 24, Patriots 3at New York |
| Jan 7, 2024Week 18, 2023 | Jets 17, Patriots 3at New England |