4 of 4 models favor the Patriots.
On average the models have the Patriots by 10.1 points, a 79% win chance.
Early prediction, updates weekly until kickoff.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Patriots by 10.1 | 79% |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Patriots by 8.5 | 75% |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Patriots by 11.2 | 83% |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Patriots by 10.6 | 78% |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. Read in the week of the game. | Available game week | — |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Patriots | — |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Not named yet. The quarterbacks we assume show here in game week: once every earlier game is in, or two days before Week 18's first kickoff.
The official Week 18 injury report isn't out yet. It shows here once nflverse has it, in the week of the game.
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through Week 5 (the games played so far); league rank in brackets.
| Dolphins | Patriots | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | −0.11 (30th) | +0.06 (8th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.06 (28th) | +0.04 (12th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | +0.05 (24th) | −0.03 (12th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | −0.05 (27th) | +0.14 (10th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.07 (17th) | −0.12 (20th) |
| Offense success rate | 40% (30th) | 45% (13th) |
The Dolphins won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Jan 4, 2026Week 18, 2025 | Patriots 38, Dolphins 10at New England |
| Sep 14, 2025Week 2, 2025 | Patriots 33, Dolphins 27at Miami |
| Nov 24, 2024Week 12, 2024 | Dolphins 34, Patriots 15at Miami |
| Oct 6, 2024Week 5, 2024 | Dolphins 15, Patriots 10at New England |
| Oct 29, 2023Week 8, 2023 | Dolphins 31, Patriots 17at Miami |