4 of 5 models favor the Seahawks.
On average the models have the Seahawks by 2.9 points, a 59% win chance.
Final: Seahawks 13, Patriots 10.
Closest of our models: ESPN FPI (Seahawks by 3.4, missed by 0.4). 4 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was right.
Reconstructed: Week 1 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Seahawks won 13–10. Lock threw for 187 yards and 1 touchdown. Our call (Seahawks, Toss-up) was right.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Patriots | Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 277 | 285 |
| Passing yards | 168 | 188 |
| Rushing yards | 109 | 97 |
| Sacked | 3 (10 yards) | 2 (12 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 3 | 0 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Seahawks by 2.9 ✓ | 59% | 0.1 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Patriots by 1.2 ✗ | 54% | 4.2 |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Seahawks by 4.6 ✓ | 66% | 1.6 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Seahawks by 4.8 ✓ | 64% | 1.8 |
| ESPN FPI ClosestESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Seahawks by 3.4 ✓ | 61% | 0.4 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Seahawks ✓ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Seahawks by 3 | — | 0.0 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 1 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
The Seahawks won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
| Feb 8, 2026Super Bowl, 2025 | Seahawks 29, Patriots 13neutral site |
| Sep 15, 2024Week 2, 2024 | Seahawks 23, Patriots 20at New England |
| Sep 20, 2020Week 2, 2020 | Seahawks 35, Patriots 30at Seattle |
| Nov 13, 2016Week 10, 2016 | Seahawks 31, Patriots 24at New England |
| Feb 1, 2015Super Bowl, 2014 | Patriots 28, Seahawks 24neutral site |