5 of 5 models favor the Bills.
On average the models have the Bills by 3.6 points, a 62% win chance.
Final: Bills 41, Lions 31.
Closest of our models: ESPN FPI (Bills by 4.5, missed by 5.5). 5 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was right.
Reconstructed: Week 2 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Bills won 41–31. Allen threw for 248 yards and 3 touchdowns. Our call (Bills, Lean) was right.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Lions | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 355 | 446 |
| Passing yards | 289 | 243 |
| Rushing yards | 66 | 203 |
| Sacked | 4 (38 yards) | 2 (5 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 0 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Bills by 3.6 ✓ | 62% | 6.4 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Bills by 3.4 ✓ | 60% | 6.6 |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Bills by 4.2 ✓ | 65% | 5.8 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Bills by 2.4 ✓ | 57% | 7.6 |
| ESPN FPI ClosestESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Bills by 4.5 ✓ | 67% | 5.5 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Bills ✓ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Bills by 5.5 | — | 4.5 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 2 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 2; league rank in brackets.
| Lions | Bills | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | 0.00 (15th) | +0.04 (8th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | +0.01 (16th) | +0.07 (5th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | +0.01 (15th) | +0.03 (20th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.04 (19th) | +0.18 (4th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.04 (14th) | −0.09 (27th) |
| Offense success rate | 45% (13th) | 44% (23rd) |
The Bills won 5 of the last 5 meetings.
| Dec 15, 2024Week 15, 2024 | Bills 48, Lions 42at Detroit |
| Nov 24, 2022Week 12, 2022 | Bills 28, Lions 25at Detroit |
| Dec 16, 2018Week 15, 2018 | Bills 14, Lions 13at Buffalo |
| Oct 5, 2014Week 5, 2014 | Bills 17, Lions 14at Detroit |
| Nov 14, 2010Week 10, 2010 | Bills 14, Lions 12at Buffalo |