4 of 4 models favor the Bills.
On average the models have the Bills by 4.5 points, a 64% win chance.
Early prediction, updates weekly until kickoff.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Bills by 4.5 | 64% |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Bills by 5.7 | 67% |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Bills by 4.4 | 65% |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Bills by 3.3 | 60% |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. Read in the week of the game. | Available game week | — |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Bills | — |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Not named yet. The quarterbacks we assume show here in game week: once every earlier game is in, or two days before Week 8's first kickoff.
The official Week 8 injury report isn't out yet. It shows here once nflverse has it, in the week of the game.
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through Week 5 (the games played so far); league rank in brackets.
| Ravens | Bills | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | +0.07 (6th) | +0.06 (9th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | +0.07 (9th) | +0.17 (1st) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | 0.00 (16th) | +0.11 (31st) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.14 (9th) | +0.28 (2nd) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.01 (6th) | +0.01 (4th) |
| Offense success rate | 47% (4th) | 48% (2nd) |
The Bills won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
| Sep 7, 2025Week 1, 2025 | Bills 41, Ravens 40at Buffalo |
| Jan 19, 2025Divisional, 2024 | Bills 27, Ravens 25at Buffalo |
| Sep 29, 2024Week 4, 2024 | Ravens 35, Bills 10at Baltimore |
| Oct 2, 2022Week 4, 2022 | Bills 23, Ravens 20at Baltimore |
| Jan 16, 2021Divisional, 2020 | Bills 17, Ravens 3at Buffalo |