5 of 5 models favor the Bills.
On average the models have the Bills by 4.8 points, a 66% win chance.
Updated until kickoff, then frozen.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
Weather: Indoors.
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Bills by 4.8 | 66% |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Bills by 4.9 | 65% |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Bills by 7.1 | 74% |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Bills by 3.5 | 60% |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Bills by 3.9 | 65% |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Bills | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Bills by 5.5 | — |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Injury statuses as of .
The official injury report, as of Tue, Oct 13 · 9:57 AM CT: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Week 5 report (last filed); Week 6 not filed yet.
Week 5 report (last filed); Week 6 not filed yet.
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 6; league rank in brackets.
| Bills | Raiders | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | +0.06 (9th) | −0.02 (21st) |
| Offense, EPA per play | +0.17 (1st) | +0.01 (14th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | +0.11 (31st) | +0.03 (21st) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.28 (2nd) | +0.13 (12th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | +0.01 (4th) | −0.18 (27th) |
| Offense success rate | 48% (2nd) | 42% (20th) |
The Bills won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Sep 17, 2023Week 2, 2023 | Bills 38, Raiders 10at Buffalo |
| Oct 4, 2020Week 4, 2020 | Bills 30, Raiders 23at Las Vegas |
| Oct 29, 2017Week 8, 2017 | Bills 34, Raiders 14at Buffalo |
| Dec 4, 2016Week 13, 2016 | Raiders 38, Bills 24at Las Vegas |
| Dec 21, 2014Week 16, 2014 | Raiders 26, Bills 24at Las Vegas |