3 of 5 models favor the Texans.
On average the models have the Texans by 0.7 points, a 52% win chance.
Final: Bills 36, Texans 31.
Closest of our models: Our model (Bills by 1.2, missed by 3.8). 2 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was wrong.
Reconstructed: Week 1 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Bills won 36–31. Allen threw for 334 yards and 2 touchdowns. Our call (Texans, Toss-up) was wrong.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Bills | Texans |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 409 | 381 |
| Passing yards | 323 | 257 |
| Rushing yards | 86 | 124 |
| Sacked | 2 (11 yards) | 3 (17 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 0 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Texans by 0.7 ✗ | 52% | 5.7 |
| Our model Experimental ClosestOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Bills by 1.2 ✓ | 54% | 3.8 |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Texans by 1.6 ✗ | 56% | 6.6 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Texans by 3.3 ✗ | 60% | 8.3 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Bills by 1 ✓ | 54% | 4.0 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Texans ✗ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Bills by 1.5 | — | 3.5 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 1 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
The Texans won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
| Nov 20, 2025Week 12, 2025 | Texans 23, Bills 19at Houston |
| Oct 6, 2024Week 5, 2024 | Texans 23, Bills 20at Houston |
| Oct 3, 2021Week 4, 2021 | Bills 40, Texans 0at Buffalo |
| Jan 4, 2020Wild Card, 2019 | Texans 22, Bills 19at Houston |
| Oct 14, 2018Week 6, 2018 | Texans 20, Bills 13at Houston |