4 of 4 models favor the Broncos.
On average the models have the Broncos by 4.5 points, a 64% win chance.
Early prediction, updates weekly until kickoff.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Broncos by 4.5 | 64% |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Broncos by 0.8 | 52% |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Broncos by 7.4 | 74% |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Broncos by 5.4 | 65% |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. Read in the week of the game. | Available game week | — |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Broncos | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Broncos by 5.5 | — |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Not named yet. The quarterbacks we assume show here in game week: once every earlier game is in, or two days before Week 7's first kickoff.
The official Week 7 injury report isn't out yet. It shows here once nflverse has it, in the week of the game.
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through Week 5 (the games played so far); league rank in brackets.
| Broncos | Cardinals | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | +0.03 (11th) | −0.10 (27th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.02 (16th) | 0.00 (15th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | −0.05 (5th) | +0.10 (29th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | −0.01 (23rd) | +0.03 (20th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.03 (10th) | −0.07 (16th) |
| Offense success rate | 41% (24th) | 45% (11th) |
The Broncos won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
| Dec 18, 2022Week 15, 2022 | Broncos 24, Cardinals 15at Denver |
| Oct 18, 2018Week 7, 2018 | Broncos 45, Cardinals 10at Arizona |
| Oct 5, 2014Week 5, 2014 | Broncos 41, Cardinals 20at Denver |
| Dec 12, 2010Week 14, 2010 | Cardinals 43, Broncos 13at Arizona |
| Dec 17, 2006Week 15, 2006 | Broncos 37, Cardinals 20at Arizona |