3 of 5 models favor the Jaguars.
On average the models have the Jaguars by 1.3 points, a 54% win chance.
Final: Broncos 20, Jaguars 13.
Closest of our models: Elo (Broncos by 1, missed by 6.0). 2 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was wrong.
Reconstructed: Week 2 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Broncos won 20–13. Nix threw for 288 yards and 1 touchdown. Our call (Jaguars, Toss-up) was wrong.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Jaguars | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 268 | 392 |
| Passing yards | 173 | 288 |
| Rushing yards | 95 | 104 |
| Sacked | 2 (16 yards) | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 1 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Jaguars by 1.3 ✗ | 54% | 8.3 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Broncos by 0.9 ✓ | 53% | 6.1 |
| Elo ClosestEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Broncos by 1 ✓ | 54% | 6.0 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Jaguars by 3.1 ✗ | 59% | 10.1 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Jaguars by 3.8 ✗ | 64% | 10.8 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Jaguars ✗ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Broncos by 2.5 | — | 4.5 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 2 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 2; league rank in brackets.
| Jaguars | Broncos | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | +0.12 (2nd) | −0.11 (30th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | +0.09 (4th) | −0.06 (30th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | −0.03 (10th) | +0.05 (23rd) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.20 (1st) | −0.06 (30th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.05 (16th) | −0.05 (17th) |
| Offense success rate | 48% (2nd) | 43% (28th) |
The Broncos won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Dec 21, 2025Week 16, 2025 | Jaguars 34, Broncos 20at Denver |
| Oct 30, 2022Week 8, 2022 | Broncos 21, Jaguars 17neutral site |
| Sep 19, 2021Week 2, 2021 | Broncos 23, Jaguars 13at Jacksonville |
| Sep 29, 2019Week 4, 2019 | Jaguars 26, Broncos 24at Denver |
| Dec 4, 2016Week 13, 2016 | Broncos 20, Jaguars 10at Jacksonville |