2 of 4 models favor the Broncos.
On average the models have the Broncos by 0.4 points, a 52% win chance.
Early prediction, updates weekly until kickoff.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Broncos by 0.4 | 52% |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Panthers by 1.1 | 53% |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Broncos by 3.7 | 63% |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Panthers by 1.4 | 54% |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. Read in the week of the game. | Available game week | — |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Broncos | — |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Not named yet. The quarterbacks we assume show here in game week: once every earlier game is in, or two days before Week 9's first kickoff.
The official Week 9 injury report isn't out yet. It shows here once nflverse has it, in the week of the game.
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through Week 5 (the games played so far); league rank in brackets.
| Broncos | Panthers | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | +0.03 (11th) | +0.07 (7th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.02 (16th) | +0.08 (7th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | −0.05 (5th) | +0.01 (19th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | −0.01 (23rd) | +0.19 (4th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.03 (10th) | −0.12 (21st) |
| Offense success rate | 41% (24th) | 44% (15th) |
The Broncos won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
| Oct 27, 2024Week 8, 2024 | Broncos 28, Panthers 14at Denver |
| Nov 27, 2022Week 12, 2022 | Panthers 23, Broncos 10at Carolina |
| Dec 13, 2020Week 14, 2020 | Broncos 32, Panthers 27at Carolina |
| Sep 8, 2016Week 1, 2016 | Broncos 21, Panthers 20at Denver |
| Feb 7, 2016Super Bowl, 2015 | Broncos 24, Panthers 10neutral site |