2 of 4 models favor the Jets.
On average the models have the Jets by 1.2 points, a 54% win chance.
Early prediction, updates weekly until kickoff.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Jets by 1.2 | 54% |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Jets by 2.7 | 58% |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Even | 50% |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Jets by 0.8 | 52% |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. Read in the week of the game. | Available game week | — |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Raiders | — |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Not named yet. The quarterbacks we assume show here in game week: once every earlier game is in, or two days before Week 8's first kickoff.
The official Week 8 injury report isn't out yet. It shows here once nflverse has it, in the week of the game.
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through Week 5 (the games played so far); league rank in brackets.
| Raiders | Jets | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | −0.02 (21st) | +0.01 (16th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | +0.01 (14th) | −0.04 (22nd) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | +0.03 (21st) | −0.05 (7th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.13 (12th) | +0.03 (18th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.18 (27th) | −0.14 (22nd) |
| Offense success rate | 42% (20th) | 42% (19th) |
The Raiders won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
| Nov 12, 2023Week 10, 2023 | Raiders 16, Jets 12at Las Vegas |
| Dec 6, 2020Week 13, 2020 | Raiders 31, Jets 28at New York |
| Nov 24, 2019Week 12, 2019 | Jets 34, Raiders 3at New York |
| Sep 17, 2017Week 2, 2017 | Raiders 45, Jets 20at Las Vegas |
| Nov 1, 2015Week 8, 2015 | Raiders 34, Jets 20at Las Vegas |