4 of 5 models favor the Chargers.
On average the models have the Chargers by 5.2 points, a 67% win chance.
Final: Raiders 26, Chargers 14.
Closest: SRS (Chargers by 4.2, missed by 16.2). 1 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was wrong.
Reconstructed: Week 2 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Raiders won 26–14. Cousins threw for 253 yards and 3 touchdowns. Our call (Chargers, Lean) was wrong.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Raiders | Chargers |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 305 | 310 |
| Passing yards | 248 | 183 |
| Rushing yards | 57 | 127 |
| Sacked | 2 (5 yards) | 3 (9 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 2 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Chargers by 5.2 ✗ | 67% | 17.2 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Chargers by 5.2 ✗ | 66% | 17.2 |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Chargers by 5.6 ✗ | 69% | 17.6 |
| SRS ClosestSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Chargers by 4.2 ✗ | 62% | 16.2 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Chargers by 5.7 ✗ | 70% | 17.7 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Raiders ✓ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Chargers by 6.5 | — | 18.5 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 2 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 2; league rank in brackets.
| Raiders | Chargers | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | +0.04 (11th) | −0.10 (28th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | 0.00 (20th) | −0.05 (27th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | −0.04 (7th) | +0.05 (22nd) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.04 (18th) | −0.01 (24th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.06 (22nd) | −0.11 (30th) |
| Offense success rate | 44% (19th) | 43% (25th) |
The Chargers won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
| Nov 30, 2025Week 13, 2025 | Chargers 31, Raiders 14at Los Angeles |
| Sep 15, 2025Week 2, 2025 | Chargers 20, Raiders 9at Las Vegas |
| Jan 5, 2025Week 18, 2024 | Chargers 34, Raiders 20at Las Vegas |
| Sep 8, 2024Week 1, 2024 | Chargers 22, Raiders 10at Los Angeles |
| Dec 14, 2023Week 15, 2023 | Raiders 63, Chargers 21at Las Vegas |