5 of 5 models favor the Chargers.
On average the models have the Chargers by 5.6 points, a 68% win chance.
Final: Cardinals 26, Chargers 14.
Closest: Our model (Chargers by 1.6, missed by 13.6). 0 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was wrong.
Reconstructed: Week 1 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Cardinals won 26–14. Brissett threw for 277 yards and 1 touchdown. Our call (Chargers, Lean) was wrong.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Cardinals | Chargers |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 393 | 268 |
| Passing yards | 277 | 187 |
| Rushing yards | 116 | 81 |
| Sacked | 1 (0 yards) | 3 (22 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 1 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Chargers by 5.6 ✗ | 68% | 17.6 |
| Our model Experimental ClosestOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Chargers by 1.6 ✗ | 55% | 13.6 |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Chargers by 6.9 ✗ | 73% | 18.9 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Chargers by 4.3 ✗ | 62% | 16.3 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Chargers by 9.6 ✗ | 80% | 21.6 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Chargers ✗ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Chargers by 8.5 | — | 20.5 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 1 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
The Chargers won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Oct 21, 2024Week 7, 2024 | Cardinals 17, Chargers 15at Arizona |
| Nov 27, 2022Week 12, 2022 | Chargers 25, Cardinals 24at Arizona |
| Nov 25, 2018Week 12, 2018 | Chargers 45, Cardinals 10at Los Angeles |
| Sep 8, 2014Week 1, 2014 | Cardinals 18, Chargers 17at Arizona |
| Oct 3, 2010Week 4, 2010 | Chargers 41, Cardinals 10at Los Angeles |