5 of 5 models favor the Lions.
On average the models have the Lions by 6.1 points, a 70% win chance.
Final (overtime): Lions 31, Saints 30.
Closest: SRS (Lions by 5.7, missed by 4.7). 5 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was right.
Reconstructed: Week 1 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Lions won 31–30 in overtime. Goff threw for 206 yards and 2 touchdowns. Our call (Lions, Lean) was right.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Saints | Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 469 | 369 |
| Passing yards | 378 | 204 |
| Rushing yards | 91 | 165 |
| Sacked | 5 (32 yards) | 1 (2 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 2 | 0 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Lions by 6.1 ✓ | 70% | 5.1 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Lions by 5.9 ✓ | 68% | 4.9 |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Lions by 6.2 ✓ | 71% | 5.2 |
| SRS ClosestSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Lions by 5.7 ✓ | 66% | 4.7 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Lions by 6.8 ✓ | 74% | 5.8 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Lions ✓ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Lions by 7 | — | 6.0 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 1 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
The Lions won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Dec 3, 2023Week 13, 2023 | Lions 33, Saints 28at New Orleans |
| Oct 4, 2020Week 4, 2020 | Saints 35, Lions 29at Detroit |
| Oct 15, 2017Week 6, 2017 | Saints 52, Lions 38at New Orleans |
| Dec 4, 2016Week 13, 2016 | Lions 28, Saints 13at New Orleans |
| Dec 21, 2015Week 15, 2015 | Lions 35, Saints 27at New Orleans |