5 of 5 models favor the Titans.
On average the models have the Titans by 2.2 points, a 57% win chance.
Final: Jets 23, Titans 10.
Closest of our models: Elo (Titans by 1.5, missed by 14.5). 0 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was wrong.
Reconstructed: Week 1 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Jets won 23–10. Smith threw for 215 yards. Our call (Titans, Toss-up) was wrong.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Jets | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 367 | 195 |
| Passing yards | 215 | 127 |
| Rushing yards | 152 | 68 |
| Sacked | 0 | 3 (13 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 0 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Titans by 2.2 ✗ | 57% | 15.2 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Titans by 1.6 ✗ | 55% | 14.6 |
| Elo ClosestEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Titans by 1.5 ✗ | 55% | 14.5 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Titans by 3.5 ✗ | 60% | 16.5 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Titans by 2.1 ✗ | 57% | 15.1 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Titans ✗ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Titans by 1.5 | — | 14.5 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 1 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
The Jets won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
| Sep 15, 2024Week 2, 2024 | Jets 24, Titans 17at Tennessee |
| Oct 3, 2021Week 4, 2021 | Jets 27, Titans 24at New York |
| Dec 2, 2018Week 13, 2018 | Titans 26, Jets 22at Tennessee |
| Dec 13, 2015Week 14, 2015 | Jets 30, Titans 8at New York |
| Dec 14, 2014Week 15, 2014 | Jets 16, Titans 11at Tennessee |