3 of 4 models favor the Jaguars.
On average the models have the Jaguars by 2.4 points, a 57% win chance.
Early prediction, updates weekly until kickoff.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Jaguars by 2.4 | 57% |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Jaguars by 2.2 | 57% |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Jaguars by 0.5 | 52% |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Jaguars by 4.6 | 63% |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. Read in the week of the game. | Available game week | — |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Ravens | — |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Not named yet. The quarterbacks we assume show here in game week: once every earlier game is in, or two days before Week 9's first kickoff.
The official Week 9 injury report isn't out yet. It shows here once nflverse has it, in the week of the game.
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through Week 5 (the games played so far); league rank in brackets.
| Jaguars | Ravens | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | +0.18 (2nd) | +0.07 (6th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | +0.12 (3rd) | +0.07 (9th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | −0.05 (4th) | 0.00 (16th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.25 (3rd) | +0.14 (9th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.05 (12th) | −0.01 (6th) |
| Offense success rate | 47% (6th) | 47% (4th) |
The Ravens won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Dec 17, 2023Week 15, 2023 | Ravens 23, Jaguars 7at Jacksonville |
| Nov 27, 2022Week 12, 2022 | Jaguars 28, Ravens 27at Jacksonville |
| Dec 20, 2020Week 15, 2020 | Ravens 40, Jaguars 14at Baltimore |
| Sep 24, 2017Week 3, 2017 | Jaguars 44, Ravens 7neutral site |
| Sep 25, 2016Week 3, 2016 | Ravens 19, Jaguars 17at Jacksonville |