5 of 5 models favor the Jaguars.
On average the models have the Jaguars by 4.1 points, a 63% win chance.
Updated until kickoff, then frozen.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Jaguars by 4.1 | 63% |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Jaguars by 2.1 | 57% |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Jaguars by 4 | 64% |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Jaguars by 6.5 | 69% |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Jaguars by 3.6 | 64% |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Jaguars | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Jaguars by 3 | — |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Injury statuses as of .
The official injury report, as of Tue, Oct 13 · 9:57 AM CT: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Week 5 report (last filed); Week 6 not filed yet.
And 2 more on the report.
Week 5 report (last filed); Week 6 not filed yet.
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 6; league rank in brackets.
| Texans | Jaguars | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | +0.01 (18th) | +0.18 (2nd) |
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.05 (24th) | +0.12 (3rd) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | −0.05 (6th) | −0.05 (4th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.04 (17th) | +0.25 (3rd) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.20 (29th) | −0.05 (12th) |
| Offense success rate | 41% (25th) | 47% (6th) |
The Texans won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Nov 9, 2025Week 10, 2025 | Texans 36, Jaguars 29at Houston |
| Sep 21, 2025Week 3, 2025 | Jaguars 17, Texans 10at Jacksonville |
| Dec 1, 2024Week 13, 2024 | Texans 23, Jaguars 20at Jacksonville |
| Sep 29, 2024Week 4, 2024 | Texans 24, Jaguars 20at Houston |
| Nov 26, 2023Week 12, 2023 | Jaguars 24, Texans 21at Houston |