4 of 4 models favor the Browns.
On average the models have the Browns by 2.8 points, a 59% win chance.
Early prediction, updates weekly until kickoff.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Browns by 2.8 | 59% |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Browns by 0.3 | 51% |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Browns by 4.3 | 65% |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Browns by 4 | 62% |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. Read in the week of the game. | Available game week | — |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Browns | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Browns by 1.5 | — |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Not named yet. The quarterbacks we assume show here in game week: once every earlier game is in, or two days before Week 7's first kickoff.
The official Week 7 injury report isn't out yet. It shows here once nflverse has it, in the week of the game.
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through Week 5 (the games played so far); league rank in brackets.
| Browns | Titans | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | −0.02 (20th) | −0.18 (32nd) |
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.03 (20th) | −0.10 (31st) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | −0.02 (13th) | +0.09 (28th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.08 (15th) | −0.11 (31st) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.23 (32nd) | −0.08 (19th) |
| Offense success rate | 40% (27th) | 42% (21st) |
The Titans won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Dec 7, 2025Week 14, 2025 | Titans 31, Browns 29at Cleveland |
| Sep 24, 2023Week 3, 2023 | Browns 27, Titans 3at Cleveland |
| Dec 6, 2020Week 13, 2020 | Browns 41, Titans 35at Tennessee |
| Sep 8, 2019Week 1, 2019 | Titans 43, Browns 13at Cleveland |
| Oct 22, 2017Week 7, 2017 | Titans 12, Browns 9at Cleveland |