5 of 5 models favor the Ravens.
On average the models have the Ravens by 2.6 points, a 59% win chance.
Updated until kickoff, then frozen.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
Weather at kickoff: 58°F, sunny, wind 12 mph from the southwest, little chance of rain.
Forecast: National Weather Service, read Tue, Oct 13 · 10:50 PM CT.
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Ravens by 2.6 | 59% |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Ravens by 1.8 | 56% |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Ravens by 3.8 | 63% |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Ravens by 1.4 | 54% |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Ravens by 3.3 | 62% |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Ravens | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Ravens by 4.5 | — |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Injury statuses as of .
The official injury report, as of Tue, Oct 13 · 9:57 AM CT: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Week 5 report (last filed); Week 6 not filed yet.
And 1 more on the report.
Week 5 report (last filed); Week 6 not filed yet.
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 6; league rank in brackets.
| Ravens | Browns | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | +0.07 (6th) | −0.02 (20th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | +0.07 (9th) | −0.03 (20th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | 0.00 (16th) | −0.02 (13th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.14 (9th) | +0.08 (15th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.01 (6th) | −0.23 (32nd) |
| Offense success rate | 47% (4th) | 40% (27th) |
The Ravens won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Nov 16, 2025Week 11, 2025 | Ravens 23, Browns 16at Cleveland |
| Sep 14, 2025Week 2, 2025 | Ravens 41, Browns 17at Baltimore |
| Jan 4, 2025Week 18, 2024 | Ravens 35, Browns 10at Baltimore |
| Oct 27, 2024Week 8, 2024 | Browns 29, Ravens 24at Cleveland |
| Nov 12, 2023Week 10, 2023 | Browns 33, Ravens 31at Baltimore |