5 of 5 models favor the Eagles.
On average the models have the Eagles by 4.8 points, a 66% win chance.
Final: Eagles 24, Titans 20.
Closest: SRS (Eagles by 3.5, missed by 0.5). 5 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was right.
Reconstructed: Week 2 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Eagles won 24–20. Hurts threw for 264 yards and 2 touchdowns. Our call (Eagles, Lean) was right.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Eagles | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 341 | 291 |
| Passing yards | 252 | 169 |
| Rushing yards | 89 | 122 |
| Sacked | 3 (12 yards) | 2 (14 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 2 | 0 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Eagles by 4.8 ✓ | 66% | 0.8 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Eagles by 2.4 ✓ | 57% | 1.6 |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Eagles by 7.7 ✓ | 75% | 3.7 |
| SRS ClosestSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Eagles by 3.5 ✓ | 60% | 0.5 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Eagles by 5.5 ✓ | 70% | 1.5 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Eagles ✓ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Eagles by 7 | — | 3.0 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 2 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 2; league rank in brackets.
| Eagles | Titans | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | −0.01 (19th) | −0.07 (27th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | +0.03 (14th) | −0.02 (22nd) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | +0.03 (21st) | +0.05 (24th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.08 (13th) | +0.01 (23rd) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.06 (21st) | −0.06 (19th) |
| Offense success rate | 42% (29th) | 45% (15th) |
The Titans won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Dec 4, 2022Week 13, 2022 | Eagles 35, Titans 10at Philadelphia |
| Sep 30, 2018Week 4, 2018 | Titans 26, Eagles 23at Tennessee |
| Nov 23, 2014Week 12, 2014 | Eagles 43, Titans 24at Philadelphia |
| Oct 24, 2010Week 7, 2010 | Titans 37, Eagles 19at Tennessee |
| Nov 19, 2006Week 11, 2006 | Titans 31, Eagles 13at Philadelphia |