2 of 5 models favor the Seahawks.
On average the models have the Seahawks by 1.4 points, a 54% win chance.
Final: Seahawks 31, Cardinals 7.
Closest: Elo (Seahawks by 8.3, missed by 15.7). 2 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was right.
Reconstructed: Week 2 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Seahawks won 31–7. Lock threw for 235 yards and 3 touchdowns. Our call (Seahawks, Toss-up) was right.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Seahawks | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 381 | 151 |
| Passing yards | 219 | 81 |
| Rushing yards | 162 | 70 |
| Sacked | 1 (16 yards) | 2 (14 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 1 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Seahawks by 1.4 ✓ | 54% | 22.6 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Cardinals by 5.8 ✗ | 67% | 29.8 |
| Elo ClosestEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Seahawks by 8.3 ✓ | 77% | 15.7 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Seahawks by 4.1 ✓ | 62% | 19.9 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Cardinals by 1.2 ✗ | 54% | 25.2 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Cardinals ✗ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Seahawks by 3.5 | — | 20.5 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 2 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 2; league rank in brackets.
| Seahawks | Cardinals | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | +0.04 (10th) | +0.10 (5th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | +0.02 (15th) | +0.05 (11th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | −0.02 (12th) | −0.05 (6th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.09 (11th) | +0.12 (9th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.07 (25th) | −0.04 (12th) |
| Offense success rate | 44% (24th) | 46% (7th) |
The Seahawks won 5 of the last 5 meetings.
| Nov 9, 2025Week 10, 2025 | Seahawks 44, Cardinals 22at Seattle |
| Sep 25, 2025Week 4, 2025 | Seahawks 23, Cardinals 20at Arizona |
| Dec 8, 2024Week 14, 2024 | Seahawks 30, Cardinals 18at Arizona |
| Nov 24, 2024Week 12, 2024 | Seahawks 16, Cardinals 6at Seattle |
| Jan 7, 2024Week 18, 2023 | Seahawks 21, Cardinals 20at Arizona |