4 of 4 models favor the Seahawks.
On average the models have the Seahawks by 10 points, a 78% win chance.
Early prediction, updates weekly until kickoff.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Seahawks by 10 | 78% |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Seahawks by 4.8 | 65% |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Seahawks by 13.4 | 87% |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Seahawks by 11.7 | 81% |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. Read in the week of the game. | Available game week | — |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Seahawks | — |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Not named yet. The quarterbacks we assume show here in game week: once every earlier game is in, or two days before Week 9's first kickoff.
The official Week 9 injury report isn't out yet. It shows here once nflverse has it, in the week of the game.
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through Week 5 (the games played so far); league rank in brackets.
| Cardinals | Seahawks | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | −0.10 (27th) | +0.03 (12th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | 0.00 (15th) | −0.05 (25th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | +0.10 (29th) | −0.09 (2nd) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.03 (20th) | +0.06 (16th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.07 (16th) | −0.21 (30th) |
| Offense success rate | 45% (11th) | 42% (22nd) |
The Seahawks won 5 of the last 5 meetings.
| Sep 20, 2026Week 2, 2026 | Seahawks 31, Cardinals 7at Arizona |
| Nov 9, 2025Week 10, 2025 | Seahawks 44, Cardinals 22at Seattle |
| Sep 25, 2025Week 4, 2025 | Seahawks 23, Cardinals 20at Arizona |
| Dec 8, 2024Week 14, 2024 | Seahawks 30, Cardinals 18at Arizona |
| Nov 24, 2024Week 12, 2024 | Seahawks 16, Cardinals 6at Seattle |