4 of 4 models favor the Bengals.
On average the models have the Bengals by 10.4 points, a 80% win chance.
Early prediction, updates weekly until kickoff.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Bengals by 10.4 | 80% |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Bengals by 10.3 | 79% |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Bengals by 10.9 | 83% |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Bengals by 10.2 | 77% |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. Read in the week of the game. | Available game week | — |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Bengals | — |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Not named yet. The quarterbacks we assume show here in game week: once every earlier game is in, or two days before Week 8's first kickoff.
The official Week 8 injury report isn't out yet. It shows here once nflverse has it, in the week of the game.
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through Week 5 (the games played so far); league rank in brackets.
| Titans | Bengals | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | −0.18 (32nd) | +0.08 (5th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.10 (31st) | +0.07 (8th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | +0.09 (28th) | 0.00 (17th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | −0.11 (31st) | +0.14 (11th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.08 (19th) | −0.05 (13th) |
| Offense success rate | 42% (21st) | 46% (10th) |
The Bengals won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
| Dec 15, 2024Week 15, 2024 | Bengals 37, Titans 27at Tennessee |
| Oct 1, 2023Week 4, 2023 | Titans 27, Bengals 3at Tennessee |
| Nov 27, 2022Week 12, 2022 | Bengals 20, Titans 16at Tennessee |
| Jan 22, 2022Divisional, 2021 | Bengals 19, Titans 16at Tennessee |
| Nov 1, 2020Week 8, 2020 | Bengals 31, Titans 20at Cincinnati |