4 of 4 models favor the Rams.
On average the models have the Rams by 8.3 points, a 75% win chance.
Early prediction, updates weekly until kickoff.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Rams by 8.3 | 75% |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Rams by 8.4 | 74% |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Rams by 7.8 | 76% |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Rams by 8.7 | 74% |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. Read in the week of the game. | Available game week | — |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Rams | — |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Not named yet. The quarterbacks we assume show here in game week: once every earlier game is in, or two days before Week 8's first kickoff.
The official Week 8 injury report isn't out yet. It shows here once nflverse has it, in the week of the game.
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through Week 5 (the games played so far); league rank in brackets.
| Chargers | Rams | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | −0.10 (28th) | +0.10 (4th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.15 (32nd) | +0.05 (10th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | −0.05 (8th) | −0.05 (3rd) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | −0.15 (32nd) | +0.11 (13th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.16 (26th) | −0.06 (15th) |
| Offense success rate | 40% (29th) | 46% (8th) |
The Chargers won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Jan 1, 2023Week 17, 2022 | Chargers 31, Rams 10at Los Angeles |
| Sep 23, 2018Week 3, 2018 | Rams 35, Chargers 23at Los Angeles |
| Nov 23, 2014Week 12, 2014 | Chargers 27, Rams 24at Los Angeles |
| Oct 17, 2010Week 6, 2010 | Rams 20, Chargers 17at Los Angeles |
| Oct 29, 2006Week 8, 2006 | Chargers 38, Rams 24at Los Angeles |