4 of 5 models favor the Texans.
On average the models have the Texans by 3.4 points, a 61% win chance.
Final: Bengals 20, Texans 6.
Closest: Our model (Texans by 1, missed by 15.0). 1 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was wrong.
Reconstructed: Week 2 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Bengals won 20–6. Burrow threw for 207 yards and 2 touchdowns. Our call (Texans, Lean) was wrong.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Bengals | Texans |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 267 | 374 |
| Passing yards | 182 | 314 |
| Rushing yards | 85 | 60 |
| Sacked | 5 (25 yards) | 4 (39 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 0 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Texans by 3.4 ✗ | 61% | 17.4 |
| Our model Experimental ClosestOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Texans by 1 ✗ | 53% | 15.0 |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Texans by 5.1 ✗ | 67% | 19.1 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Texans by 5.9 ✗ | 67% | 19.9 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Texans by 1.6 ✗ | 57% | 15.6 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Bengals ✓ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Texans by 3 | — | 17.0 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 2 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 2; league rank in brackets.
| Bengals | Texans | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | +0.04 (12th) | −0.04 (25th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | +0.01 (17th) | +0.03 (13th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | −0.03 (9th) | +0.07 (28th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.03 (21st) | +0.07 (14th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.03 (9th) | −0.03 (10th) |
| Offense success rate | 45% (10th) | 45% (11th) |
The Texans won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
| Nov 12, 2023Week 10, 2023 | Texans 30, Bengals 27at Cincinnati |
| Dec 27, 2020Week 16, 2020 | Bengals 37, Texans 31at Houston |
| Sep 14, 2017Week 2, 2017 | Texans 13, Bengals 9at Cincinnati |
| Dec 24, 2016Week 16, 2016 | Texans 12, Bengals 10at Houston |
| Nov 16, 2015Week 10, 2015 | Texans 10, Bengals 6at Cincinnati |