4 of 5 models favor the Rams.
On average the models have the Rams by 5.2 points, a 67% win chance.
Final: Rams 28, Giants 6.
Closest: Elo (Rams by 6.6, missed by 15.4). 4 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was right.
Reconstructed: Week 2 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Rams won 28–6. Stafford threw for 327 yards and 4 touchdowns. Our call (Rams, Lean) was right.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Giants | Rams |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 182 | 481 |
| Passing yards | 130 | 318 |
| Rushing yards | 52 | 163 |
| Sacked | 2 (1 yard) | 1 (9 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 1 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Rams by 5.2 ✓ | 67% | 16.8 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Rams by 3.8 ✓ | 62% | 18.2 |
| Elo ClosestEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Rams by 6.6 ✓ | 72% | 15.4 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Rams by 5.8 ✓ | 67% | 16.2 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Rams by 4.5 ✓ | 67% | 17.5 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Giants ✗ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Rams by 6.5 | — | 15.5 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 2 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
And 1 more on the report.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 2; league rank in brackets.
| Giants | Rams | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | +0.04 (9th) | −0.11 (29th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | +0.10 (2nd) | −0.05 (29th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | +0.06 (27th) | +0.06 (26th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.20 (2nd) | −0.04 (28th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.02 (8th) | −0.08 (26th) |
| Offense success rate | 49% (1st) | 44% (17th) |
The Rams won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
| Dec 31, 2023Week 17, 2023 | Rams 26, Giants 25at New York |
| Oct 17, 2021Week 6, 2021 | Rams 38, Giants 11at New York |
| Oct 4, 2020Week 4, 2020 | Rams 17, Giants 9at Los Angeles |
| Nov 5, 2017Week 9, 2017 | Rams 51, Giants 17at New York |
| Oct 23, 2016Week 7, 2016 | Giants 17, Rams 10neutral site |