3 of 4 models favor the Eagles.
On average the models have the Eagles by 2.9 points, a 59% win chance.
Early prediction, updates weekly until kickoff.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Eagles by 2.9 | 59% |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Eagles by 1.5 | 55% |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Eagles by 3.8 | 63% |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Eagles by 3.3 | 60% |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. Read in the week of the game. | Available game week | — |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Giants | — |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Not named yet. The quarterbacks we assume show here in game week: once every earlier game is in, or two days before Week 9's first kickoff.
The official Week 9 injury report isn't out yet. It shows here once nflverse has it, in the week of the game.
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through Week 5 (the games played so far); league rank in brackets.
| Giants | Eagles | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | −0.09 (24th) | −0.13 (31st) |
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.06 (27th) | −0.09 (30th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | +0.03 (22nd) | +0.04 (23rd) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.01 (21st) | −0.05 (26th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.16 (24th) | −0.16 (25th) |
| Offense success rate | 41% (26th) | 38% (31st) |
The Eagles won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Oct 26, 2025Week 8, 2025 | Eagles 38, Giants 20at Philadelphia |
| Oct 9, 2025Week 6, 2025 | Giants 34, Eagles 17at New York |
| Jan 5, 2025Week 18, 2024 | Eagles 20, Giants 13at Philadelphia |
| Oct 20, 2024Week 7, 2024 | Eagles 28, Giants 3at New York |
| Jan 7, 2024Week 18, 2023 | Giants 27, Eagles 10at New York |