4 of 5 models favor the Giants.
On average the models have the Giants by 1.2 points, a 53% win chance.
Updated until kickoff, then frozen.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
Weather at kickoff: 54°F, sunny, wind 9 mph from the west, little chance of rain.
Forecast: National Weather Service, read Tue, Oct 13 · 10:50 PM CT.
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Giants by 1.2 | 53% |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Giants by 3.1 | 59% |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Giants by 4.2 | 65% |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Giants by 1.7 | 55% |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Saints by 4.1 | 65% |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Giants | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Saints by 1.5 | — |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Injury statuses as of .
The official injury report, as of Tue, Oct 13 · 9:57 AM CT: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Week 5 report (last filed); Week 6 not filed yet.
And 1 more on the report.
Week 5 report (last filed); Week 6 not filed yet.
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 6; league rank in brackets.
| Saints | Giants | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | −0.10 (29th) | −0.09 (24th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.04 (23rd) | −0.06 (27th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | +0.07 (27th) | +0.03 (22nd) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | −0.01 (24th) | +0.01 (21st) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.08 (18th) | −0.16 (24th) |
| Offense success rate | 44% (14th) | 41% (26th) |
The Saints won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
| Oct 5, 2025Week 5, 2025 | Saints 26, Giants 14at New Orleans |
| Dec 8, 2024Week 14, 2024 | Saints 14, Giants 11at New York |
| Dec 17, 2023Week 15, 2023 | Saints 24, Giants 6at New Orleans |
| Oct 3, 2021Week 4, 2021 | Giants 27, Saints 21at New Orleans |
| Sep 30, 2018Week 4, 2018 | Saints 33, Giants 18at New York |