4 of 4 models favor the Lions.
On average the models have the Lions by 1.9 points, a 56% win chance.
Early prediction, updates weekly until kickoff.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Lions by 1.9 | 56% |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Lions by 0.1 | 50% |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Lions by 2.8 | 60% |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Lions by 2.9 | 58% |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. Read in the week of the game. | Available game week | — |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Lions | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Lions by 3 | — |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Not named yet. The quarterbacks we assume show here in game week: once every earlier game is in, or two days before Week 7's first kickoff.
The official Week 7 injury report isn't out yet. It shows here once nflverse has it, in the week of the game.
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through Week 5 (the games played so far); league rank in brackets.
| Packers | Lions | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | +0.03 (13th) | +0.01 (17th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | +0.02 (13th) | +0.11 (5th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | −0.01 (15th) | +0.10 (30th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.16 (7th) | +0.19 (5th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.22 (31st) | −0.03 (9th) |
| Offense success rate | 43% (17th) | 46% (9th) |
The Packers won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Nov 27, 2025Week 13, 2025 | Packers 31, Lions 24at Detroit |
| Sep 7, 2025Week 1, 2025 | Packers 27, Lions 13at Green Bay |
| Dec 5, 2024Week 14, 2024 | Lions 34, Packers 31at Detroit |
| Nov 3, 2024Week 9, 2024 | Lions 24, Packers 14at Green Bay |
| Nov 23, 2023Week 12, 2023 | Packers 29, Lions 22at Detroit |