4 of 4 models favor the Texans.
On average the models have the Texans by 2.6 points, a 58% win chance.
Early prediction, updates weekly until kickoff.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Texans by 2.6 | 58% |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Texans by 1.8 | 56% |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Texans by 2.6 | 59% |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Texans by 3.5 | 60% |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. Read in the week of the game. | Available game week | — |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Texans | — |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Not named yet. The quarterbacks we assume show here in game week: once every earlier game is in, or two days before Week 9's first kickoff.
The official Week 9 injury report isn't out yet. It shows here once nflverse has it, in the week of the game.
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through Week 5 (the games played so far); league rank in brackets.
| Texans | Chargers | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | +0.01 (18th) | −0.10 (28th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.05 (24th) | −0.15 (32nd) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | −0.05 (6th) | −0.05 (8th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.04 (17th) | −0.15 (32nd) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.20 (29th) | −0.16 (26th) |
| Offense success rate | 41% (25th) | 40% (29th) |
The Texans won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
| Dec 27, 2025Week 17, 2025 | Texans 20, Chargers 16at Los Angeles |
| Jan 11, 2025Wild Card, 2024 | Texans 32, Chargers 12at Houston |
| Oct 2, 2022Week 4, 2022 | Chargers 34, Texans 24at Houston |
| Dec 26, 2021Week 16, 2021 | Texans 41, Chargers 29at Houston |
| Sep 22, 2019Week 3, 2019 | Texans 27, Chargers 20at Los Angeles |