5 of 5 models favor the Ravens.
On average the models have the Ravens by 6.4 points, a 70% win chance.
Final: Saints 24, Ravens 17.
Closest: SRS (Ravens by 5.2, missed by 12.2). 0 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was wrong.
Reconstructed: Week 2 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Saints won 24–17. Shough threw for 252 yards and 1 touchdown. Our call (Ravens, Lean) was wrong.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Saints | Ravens |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 298 | 312 |
| Passing yards | 233 | 204 |
| Rushing yards | 65 | 108 |
| Sacked | 3 (19 yards) | 3 (31 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 1 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Ravens by 6.4 ✗ | 70% | 13.4 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Ravens by 5.8 ✗ | 67% | 12.8 |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Ravens by 6.9 ✗ | 73% | 13.9 |
| SRS ClosestSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Ravens by 5.2 ✗ | 65% | 12.2 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Ravens by 7.7 ✗ | 76% | 14.7 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Ravens ✗ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Ravens by 8.5 | — | 15.5 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 2 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 2; league rank in brackets.
| Saints | Ravens | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | 0.00 (18th) | +0.14 (1st) |
| Offense, EPA per play | +0.01 (18th) | +0.09 (3rd) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | +0.01 (17th) | −0.05 (5th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.04 (20th) | +0.15 (5th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.05 (15th) | +0.03 (3rd) |
| Offense success rate | 44% (20th) | 46% (5th) |
The Ravens won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
| Nov 7, 2022Week 9, 2022 | Ravens 27, Saints 13at New Orleans |
| Oct 21, 2018Week 7, 2018 | Saints 24, Ravens 23at Baltimore |
| Nov 24, 2014Week 12, 2014 | Ravens 34, Saints 27at New Orleans |
| Dec 19, 2010Week 15, 2010 | Ravens 30, Saints 24at Baltimore |
| Oct 29, 2006Week 8, 2006 | Ravens 35, Saints 22at New Orleans |