4 of 4 models favor the Jets.
On average the models have the Jets by 2.9 points, a 59% win chance.
Early prediction, updates weekly until kickoff.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Jets by 2.9 | 59% |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Jets by 3.3 | 60% |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Jets by 2.2 | 58% |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Jets by 3.1 | 59% |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. Read in the week of the game. | Available game week | — |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Jets | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Jets by 4.5 | — |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Not named yet. The quarterbacks we assume show here in game week: once every earlier game is in, or two days before Week 7's first kickoff.
The official Week 7 injury report isn't out yet. It shows here once nflverse has it, in the week of the game.
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through Week 5 (the games played so far); league rank in brackets.
| Dolphins | Jets | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | −0.11 (30th) | +0.01 (16th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.06 (28th) | −0.04 (22nd) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | +0.05 (24th) | −0.05 (7th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | −0.05 (27th) | +0.03 (18th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.07 (17th) | −0.14 (22nd) |
| Offense success rate | 40% (30th) | 42% (19th) |
The Dolphins won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
| Dec 7, 2025Week 14, 2025 | Dolphins 34, Jets 10at New York |
| Sep 29, 2025Week 4, 2025 | Dolphins 27, Jets 21at Miami |
| Jan 5, 2025Week 18, 2024 | Jets 32, Dolphins 20at New York |
| Dec 8, 2024Week 14, 2024 | Dolphins 32, Jets 26at Miami |
| Dec 17, 2023Week 15, 2023 | Dolphins 30, Jets 0at Miami |