1 of 5 models favor the Eagles.
On average the models have the Eagles by 0.5 points, a 52% win chance.
Updated until kickoff, then frozen.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
Weather at kickoff: 55°F, sunny, wind 5 mph from the west, little chance of rain.
Forecast: National Weather Service, read Tue, Oct 13 · 10:50 PM CT.
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Eagles by 0.5 | 52% |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Panthers by 0.6 | 52% |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Eagles by 3.7 | 63% |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Panthers by 0.9 | 53% |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Panthers by 0.2 | 51% |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Panthers | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Eagles by 1.5 | — |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Injury statuses as of .
The official injury report, as of Tue, Oct 13 · 9:57 AM CT: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Week 4 report (last filed); Week 6 not filed yet.
Week 5 report (last filed); Week 6 not filed yet.
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 6; league rank in brackets.
| Panthers | Eagles | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | +0.07 (7th) | −0.13 (31st) |
| Offense, EPA per play | +0.08 (7th) | −0.09 (30th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | +0.01 (19th) | +0.04 (23rd) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.19 (4th) | −0.05 (26th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.12 (21st) | −0.16 (25th) |
| Offense success rate | 44% (15th) | 38% (31st) |
The Eagles won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Dec 8, 2024Week 14, 2024 | Eagles 22, Panthers 16at Philadelphia |
| Oct 10, 2021Week 5, 2021 | Eagles 21, Panthers 18at Carolina |
| Oct 21, 2018Week 7, 2018 | Panthers 21, Eagles 17at Philadelphia |
| Oct 12, 2017Week 6, 2017 | Eagles 28, Panthers 23at Carolina |
| Oct 25, 2015Week 7, 2015 | Panthers 27, Eagles 16at Carolina |