4 of 5 models favor the Packers.
On average the models have the Packers by 3 points, a 60% win chance.
Final (overtime): Packers 20, Jets 17.
Closest: Elo (Packers by 2.8, missed by 0.2). 4 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was right.
Reconstructed: Week 2 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Packers won 20–17 in overtime. Love threw for 145 yards and 2 touchdowns. Our call (Packers, Toss-up) was right.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Packers | Jets |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 199 | 285 |
| Passing yards | 136 | 218 |
| Rushing yards | 63 | 67 |
| Sacked | 3 (9 yards) | 4 (29 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 0 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Packers by 3 ✓ | 60% | 0.0 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Packers by 4.3 ✓ | 63% | 1.3 |
| Elo ClosestEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Packers by 2.8 ✓ | 60% | 0.2 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Packers by 1.4 ✓ | 54% | 1.6 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Packers by 3.5 ✓ | 63% | 0.5 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Jets ✗ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Packers by 3.5 | — | 0.5 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 2 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
And 1 more on the report.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 2; league rank in brackets.
| Packers | Jets | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | −0.03 (20th) | +0.07 (6th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.03 (25th) | +0.05 (9th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | 0.00 (14th) | −0.02 (11th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.02 (22nd) | +0.12 (8th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.13 (31st) | −0.02 (6th) |
| Offense success rate | 43% (27th) | 46% (6th) |
The Packers won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Oct 16, 2022Week 6, 2022 | Jets 27, Packers 10at Green Bay |
| Dec 23, 2018Week 16, 2018 | Packers 44, Jets 38at New York |
| Sep 14, 2014Week 2, 2014 | Packers 31, Jets 24at Green Bay |
| Oct 31, 2010Week 8, 2010 | Packers 9, Jets 0at New York |
| Dec 3, 2006Week 13, 2006 | Jets 38, Packers 10at Green Bay |