Entering Week 4, the 49ers rate highest (+5.7 points against an average team on a neutral field), ahead of the Rams (+4.1) and the Bills (+3.9); the Buccaneers (−4.8) are last.
Since Week 3, the Seahawks rose the most, 17 places to 9th, and the Buccaneers fell the most, 12 places to 32nd.
Reconstructed: these rankings were worked out after Week 4 began, from the games before it, the same way as every week.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
| # | Move | Team | Record | Rating | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | no change | San Francisco 49ersBeat the Cardinals 36–30 in Week 3. Offense 1st, defense 19th by EPA per play. B.Purdy at quarterback counts +1.5 points. | 3–0 | +5.7 | — |
| 2 | no change | Los Angeles RamsLost at the Broncos 30–26 in Week 3. Offense 3rd, defense 4th by EPA per play. | 1–2 | +4.1 | — |
| 3 | no change | Buffalo BillsBeat the Chargers 24–16 in Week 3. Offense 2nd, defense 26th by EPA per play. | 3–0 | +3.9 | — |
| 4 | up 3 | Kansas City ChiefsWon at the Dolphins 24–10 in Week 3. Offense 9th, defense 7th by EPA per play. P.Mahomes at quarterback counts +1.1 points. | 3–0 | +3.2 | — |
| 5 | up 3 | Baltimore RavensBeat the Cowboys 34–31 in Week 3. Offense 12th, defense 18th by EPA per play. L.Jackson at quarterback counts +1.1 points. | 2–1 | +2.7 | — |
| 6 | down 2 | New England PatriotsLost at the Jaguars 35–6 in Week 3. Offense 7th, defense 9th by EPA per play. | 1–2 | +2.7 | — |
| 7 | up 3 | Cincinnati BengalsLost at the Steelers 30–27 in Week 3. Offense 16th, defense 8th by EPA per play. J.Burrow at quarterback counts +2.0 points. | 2–1 | +2.4 | — |
| 8 | up 4 | Jacksonville JaguarsBeat the Patriots 35–6 in Week 3. Offense 11th, defense 5th by EPA per play. | 2–1 | +2.1 | — |
| 9 | up 17 | Seattle SeahawksLost at the Commanders 33–31 in Week 3. Offense 13th, defense 3rd by EPA per play. | 2–1 | +2.1 | — |
| 10 | down 1 | Dallas CowboysLost to the Ravens 34–31 in Week 3. Offense 4th, defense 32nd by EPA per play. | 1–2 | +2.0 | — |
| 11 | down 5 | Indianapolis ColtsBeat the Texans 19–17 in Week 3. Offense 10th, defense 31st by EPA per play. D.Jones at quarterback counts +1.2 points. | 1–2 | +2.0 | — |
| 12 | down 7 | Green Bay PackersLost to the Falcons 35–14 in Week 3. Offense 8th, defense 25th by EPA per play. | 1–2 | +2.0 | — |
| 13 | down 2 | Detroit LionsBeat the Jets 31–24 in Week 3. Offense 6th, defense 30th by EPA per play. | 2–1 | +1.6 | — |
| 14 | no change | Denver BroncosBeat the Rams 30–26 in Week 3. Offense 14th, defense 20th by EPA per play. | 2–1 | +0.4 | — |
| 15 | down 2 | Houston TexansLost at the Colts 19–17 in Week 3. Offense 22nd, defense 14th by EPA per play. C.Stroud at quarterback counts +1.1 points. | 0–3 | +0.3 | — |
| 16 | up 2 | Washington CommandersBeat the Seahawks 33–31 in Week 3. Offense 15th, defense 23rd by EPA per play. | 1–2 | 0.0 | — |
| 17 | no change | Arizona CardinalsLost at the 49ers 36–30 in Week 3. Offense 17th, defense 27th by EPA per play. | 1–2 | −0.1 | — |
| 18 | down 2 | Pittsburgh SteelersBeat the Bengals 30–27 in Week 3. Offense 20th, defense 15th by EPA per play. | 2–1 | −0.2 | — |
| 19 | no change | Carolina PanthersLost at the Browns 21–18 in Week 3. Offense 21st, defense 13th by EPA per play. | 1–2 | −0.2 | — |
| 20 | down 5 | Philadelphia EaglesLost at the Bears 27–7 in Week 3. Offense 18th, defense 24th by EPA per play. | 2–1 | −0.2 | — |
| 21 | up 11 | Atlanta FalconsWon at the Packers 35–14 in Week 3. Offense 26th, defense 10th by EPA per play. | 1–2 | −1.0 | — |
| 22 | down 1 | Los Angeles ChargersLost at the Bills 24–16 in Week 3. Offense 25th, defense 16th by EPA per play. | 0–3 | −1.2 | — |
| 23 | down 1 | Minnesota VikingsWon at the Buccaneers 23–16 in Week 3. Offense 30th, defense 1st by EPA per play. K.Murray at quarterback counts +1.1 points. | 3–0 | −1.4 | — |
| 24 | up 1 | New York JetsLost at the Lions 31–24 in Week 3. Offense 28th, defense 12th by EPA per play. G.Smith at quarterback counts +1.6 points. | 1–2 | −1.4 | — |
| 25 | down 2 | New Orleans SaintsLost to the Raiders 35–27 in Week 3. Offense 27th, defense 22nd by EPA per play. | 1–2 | −1.8 | — |
| 26 | down 2 | Miami DolphinsLost to the Chiefs 24–10 in Week 3. Offense 24th, defense 29th by EPA per play. | 0–3 | −2.0 | — |
| 27 | up 2 | Las Vegas RaidersWon at the Saints 35–27 in Week 3. Offense 31st, defense 2nd by EPA per play. K.Cousins at quarterback counts +1.1 points. | 3–0 | −2.7 | — |
| 28 | down 1 | New York GiantsBeat the Titans 12–7 in Week 3. Offense 19th, defense 28th by EPA per play. J.Winston at quarterback counts −2.1 points. | 2–1 | −3.0 | — |
| 29 | up 1 | Chicago BearsBeat the Eagles 27–7 in Week 3. Offense 5th, defense 11th by EPA per play. C.Keenum at quarterback counts −5.8 points. | 2–1 | −3.1 | — |
| 30 | down 2 | Tennessee TitansLost at the Giants 12–7 in Week 3. Offense 29th, defense 21st by EPA per play. | 0–3 | −3.6 | — |
| 31 | no change | Cleveland BrownsBeat the Panthers 21–18 in Week 3. Offense 32nd, defense 17th by EPA per play. D.Watson at quarterback counts +1.2 points. | 2–1 | −4.2 | — |
| 32 | down 12 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersLost to the Vikings 23–16 in Week 3. Offense 23rd, defense 6th by EPA per play. Jalon Daniels at quarterback counts −4.2 points. | 0–3 | −4.8 | — |
Rating: our model's points against an average team on a neutral field, from the team's opponent-adjusted EPA per play and its expected starting quarterback, using only games before Week 4. Move: places up or down from Week 3. Record: before Week 4. Playoffs: the team's playoff chance entering the week, from our 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season (the simulation began after this week, so none is shown).
We play out the rest of the 2026 season 20,000 times, from the same starting number every time, so the same results and predictions always give the same chances.