Entering Week 2, the Bills rate highest (+3.8 points against an average team on a neutral field), ahead of the 49ers (+3.7) and the Rams (+3.6); the Browns (−6.1) are last.
Since Week 1, the Colts rose the most, 17 places to 6th, and the Seahawks fell the most, 14 places to 29th.
Reconstructed: these rankings were worked out after Week 2 began, from the games before it, the same way as every week.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
| # | Move | Team | Record | Rating | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | up 1 | Buffalo BillsWon at the Texans 36–31 in Week 1. Offense 2nd, defense 20th by EPA per play. | 1–0 | +3.8 | — |
| 2 | up 3 | San Francisco 49ersBeat the Rams 27–7 in Week 1. Offense 4th, defense 4th by EPA per play. | 1–0 | +3.7 | — |
| 3 | down 2 | Los Angeles RamsLost to the 49ers 27–7 in Week 1. Offense 1st, defense 26th by EPA per play. | 0–1 | +3.6 | — |
| 4 | no change | Green Bay PackersLost at the Vikings 39–22 in Week 1. Offense 5th, defense 14th by EPA per play. | 0–1 | +3.3 | — |
| 5 | down 2 | New England PatriotsLost at the Seahawks 13–10 in Week 1. Offense 3rd, defense 18th by EPA per play. | 0–1 | +3.2 | — |
| 6 | up 17 | Indianapolis ColtsLost to the Ravens 41–23 in Week 1. Offense 8th, defense 30th by EPA per play. D.Jones at quarterback counts +1.3 points. | 0–1 | +3.1 | — |
| 7 | down 1 | Dallas CowboysLost at the Giants 28–20 in Week 1. Offense 6th, defense 31st by EPA per play. | 0–1 | +2.3 | — |
| 8 | no change | Kansas City ChiefsBeat the Broncos 31–10 in Week 1. Offense 12th, defense 3rd by EPA per play. P.Mahomes at quarterback counts +1.1 points. | 1–0 | +2.3 | — |
| 9 | down 2 | Chicago BearsWon at the Panthers 59–37 in Week 1. Offense 7th, defense 25th by EPA per play. | 1–0 | +2.2 | — |
| 10 | no change | Baltimore RavensWon at the Colts 41–23 in Week 1. Offense 11th, defense 5th by EPA per play. | 1–0 | +2.2 | — |
| 11 | down 2 | Detroit LionsBeat the Saints 31–30 in Week 1. Offense 9th, defense 15th by EPA per play. | 1–0 | +1.9 | — |
| 12 | down 1 | Cincinnati BengalsBeat the Buccaneers 33–27 in Week 1. Offense 22nd, defense 9th by EPA per play. J.Burrow at quarterback counts +1.7 points. | 1–0 | +1.5 | — |
| 13 | no change | New York GiantsBeat the Cowboys 28–20 in Week 1. Offense 15th, defense 27th by EPA per play. J.Dart at quarterback counts +1.2 points. | 1–0 | +1.4 | — |
| 14 | no change | Jacksonville JaguarsBeat the Browns 34–10 in Week 1. Offense 10th, defense 10th by EPA per play. | 1–0 | +1.2 | — |
| 15 | down 3 | Houston TexansLost to the Bills 36–31 in Week 1. Offense 19th, defense 28th by EPA per play. C.Stroud at quarterback counts +1.2 points. | 0–1 | +0.9 | — |
| 16 | no change | Pittsburgh SteelersBeat the Falcons 20–13 in Week 1. Offense 17th, defense 2nd by EPA per play. | 1–0 | +0.7 | — |
| 17 | up 13 | Denver BroncosLost at the Chiefs 31–10 in Week 1. Offense 14th, defense 22nd by EPA per play. | 0–1 | +0.5 | — |
| 18 | down 1 | Philadelphia EaglesBeat the Commanders 24–22 in Week 1. Offense 18th, defense 21st by EPA per play. | 1–0 | +0.5 | — |
| 19 | down 1 | Washington CommandersLost at the Eagles 24–22 in Week 1. Offense 16th, defense 19th by EPA per play. | 0–1 | +0.4 | — |
| 20 | no change | Arizona CardinalsWon at the Chargers 26–14 in Week 1. Offense 21st, defense 6th by EPA per play. | 1–0 | +0.3 | — |
| 21 | down 2 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersLost at the Bengals 33–27 in Week 1. Offense 20th, defense 17th by EPA per play. | 0–1 | 0.0 | — |
| 22 | down 1 | Los Angeles ChargersLost to the Cardinals 26–14 in Week 1. Offense 23rd, defense 23rd by EPA per play. | 0–1 | −0.4 | — |
| 23 | down 1 | Carolina PanthersLost to the Bears 59–37 in Week 1. Offense 25th, defense 32nd by EPA per play. | 0–1 | −1.2 | — |
| 24 | up 5 | Miami DolphinsLost at the Raiders 27–13 in Week 1. Offense 24th, defense 13th by EPA per play. | 0–1 | −1.5 | — |
| 25 | up 2 | Minnesota VikingsBeat the Packers 39–22 in Week 1. Offense 28th, defense 8th by EPA per play. C.Wentz at quarterback counts +1.5 points. | 1–0 | −1.6 | — |
| 26 | down 2 | New Orleans SaintsLost at the Lions 31–30 in Week 1. Offense 27th, defense 16th by EPA per play. | 0–1 | −2.0 | — |
| 27 | down 1 | New York JetsWon at the Titans 23–10 in Week 1. Offense 30th, defense 12th by EPA per play. | 1–0 | −2.6 | — |
| 28 | down 3 | Tennessee TitansLost to the Jets 23–10 in Week 1. Offense 29th, defense 24th by EPA per play. | 0–1 | −3.5 | — |
| 29 | down 14 | Seattle SeahawksBeat the Patriots 13–10 in Week 1. Offense 13th, defense 11th by EPA per play. D.Lock at quarterback counts −4.7 points. | 1–0 | −3.8 | — |
| 30 | up 1 | Las Vegas RaidersBeat the Dolphins 27–13 in Week 1. Offense 31st, defense 7th by EPA per play. | 1–0 | −4.1 | — |
| 31 | down 3 | Atlanta FalconsLost at the Steelers 20–13 in Week 1. Offense 26th, defense 1st by EPA per play. C.Rush at quarterback counts −3.5 points. | 0–1 | −4.4 | — |
| 32 | no change | Cleveland BrownsLost at the Jaguars 34–10 in Week 1. Offense 32nd, defense 29th by EPA per play. | 0–1 | −6.1 | — |
Rating: our model's points against an average team on a neutral field, from the team's opponent-adjusted EPA per play and its expected starting quarterback, using only games before Week 2. Move: places up or down from Week 1. Record: before Week 2. Playoffs: the team's playoff chance entering the week, from our 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season (the simulation began after this week, so none is shown).
We play out the rest of the 2026 season 20,000 times, from the same starting number every time, so the same results and predictions always give the same chances.