Entering Week 5, the 49ers rate highest (+6.1 points against an average team on a neutral field), ahead of the Rams (+4.7) and the Chiefs (+3.7); the Buccaneers (−4.7) are last.
Since Week 4, the Falcons rose the most, 4 places to 17th, and the Commanders fell the most, 14 places to 30th.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
| # | Move | Team | Record | Rating | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | no change | San Francisco 49ersBeat the Broncos 24–14 in Week 4. Offense 1st, defense 21st by EPA per play. B.Purdy at quarterback counts +1.6 points. | 4–0 | +6.1 | 96% |
| 2 | no change | Los Angeles RamsWon at the Eagles 24–20 in Week 4. Offense 3rd, defense 2nd by EPA per play. | 2–2 | +4.7 | 68% |
| 3 | up 1 | Kansas City ChiefsWon at the Raiders 30–27 in Week 4. Offense 7th, defense 9th by EPA per play. P.Mahomes at quarterback counts +1.0 points. | 4–0 | +3.7 | 93% |
| 4 | down 1 | Buffalo BillsLost to the Patriots 29–26 in Week 4. Offense 2nd, defense 29th by EPA per play. | 3–1 | +3.7 | 83% |
| 5 | no change | Baltimore RavensBeat the Titans 24–18 in Week 4. Offense 10th, defense 10th by EPA per play. L.Jackson at quarterback counts +1.2 points. | 3–1 | +3.5 | 75% |
| 6 | up 2 | Jacksonville JaguarsWon at the Bengals 22–17 in Week 4. Offense 9th, defense 5th by EPA per play. | 3–1 | +2.8 | 94% |
| 7 | down 1 | New England PatriotsWon at the Bills 29–26 in Week 4. Offense 8th, defense 12th by EPA per play. | 2–2 | +2.7 | 73% |
| 8 | down 1 | Cincinnati BengalsLost to the Jaguars 22–17 in Week 4. Offense 15th, defense 14th by EPA per play. J.Burrow at quarterback counts +2.1 points. | 2–2 | +2.5 | 52% |
| 9 | no change | Seattle SeahawksBeat the Chargers 30–23 in Week 4. Offense 13th, defense 3rd by EPA per play. | 3–1 | +2.1 | 78% |
| 10 | up 1 | Indianapolis ColtsBeat the Commanders 30–13 in Week 4. Offense 12th, defense 23rd by EPA per play. D.Jones at quarterback counts +1.1 points. | 2–2 | +1.9 | 42% |
| 11 | up 1 | Green Bay PackersWon at the Buccaneers 17–14 in Week 4. Offense 11th, defense 24th by EPA per play. | 2–2 | +1.8 | 23% |
| 12 | down 2 | Dallas CowboysWon at the Texans 34–30 in Week 4. Offense 4th, defense 32nd by EPA per play. | 2–2 | +1.8 | 40% |
| 13 | no change | Detroit LionsLost at the Panthers 32–26 in Week 4. Offense 6th, defense 31st by EPA per play. | 2–2 | +1.2 | 43% |
| 14 | no change | Denver BroncosLost at the 49ers 24–14 in Week 4. Offense 14th, defense 19th by EPA per play. | 2–2 | +0.5 | 58% |
| 15 | no change | Houston TexansLost to the Cowboys 34–30 in Week 4. Offense 21st, defense 18th by EPA per play. C.Stroud at quarterback counts +1.2 points. | 0–4 | +0.4 | 9% |
| 16 | up 3 | Carolina PanthersBeat the Lions 32–26 in Week 4. Offense 16th, defense 16th by EPA per play. | 2–2 | +0.3 | 54% |
| 17 | up 4 | Atlanta FalconsWon at the Saints 45–24 in Week 4. Offense 23rd, defense 6th by EPA per play. | 2–2 | −0.1 | 47% |
| 18 | no change | Pittsburgh SteelersLost at the Browns 27–24 in Week 4. Offense 18th, defense 15th by EPA per play. | 2–2 | −0.3 | 34% |
| 19 | down 2 | Arizona CardinalsLost at the Giants 36–24 in Week 4. Offense 19th, defense 25th by EPA per play. | 1–3 | −0.8 | 3% |
| 20 | up 3 | Minnesota VikingsBeat the Dolphins 15–10 in Week 4. Offense 30th, defense 1st by EPA per play. K.Murray at quarterback counts +1.2 points. | 4–0 | −0.9 | 88% |
| 21 | down 1 | Philadelphia EaglesLost to the Rams 24–20 in Week 4. Offense 22nd, defense 28th by EPA per play. | 2–2 | −1.1 | 36% |
| 22 | no change | Los Angeles ChargersLost at the Seahawks 30–23 in Week 4. Offense 26th, defense 11th by EPA per play. | 0–4 | −1.3 | 2% |
| 23 | up 1 | New York JetsLost at the Bears 23–12 in Week 4. Offense 28th, defense 13th by EPA per play. G.Smith at quarterback counts +1.5 points. | 1–3 | −1.6 | 6% |
| 24 | up 3 | Las Vegas RaidersLost to the Chiefs 30–27 in Week 4. Offense 31st, defense 4th by EPA per play. K.Cousins at quarterback counts +1.5 points. | 3–1 | −2.1 | 36% |
| 25 | up 4 | Chicago BearsBeat the Jets 23–12 in Week 4. Offense 5th, defense 8th by EPA per play. T.Bagent at quarterback counts −5.4 points. | 3–1 | −2.2 | 62% |
| 26 | up 2 | New York GiantsBeat the Cardinals 36–24 in Week 4. Offense 20th, defense 17th by EPA per play. J.Winston at quarterback counts −1.6 points. | 3–1 | −2.4 | 42% |
| 27 | down 1 | Miami DolphinsLost at the Vikings 15–10 in Week 4. Offense 25th, defense 27th by EPA per play. | 0–4 | −2.7 | 1% |
| 28 | down 3 | New Orleans SaintsLost to the Falcons 45–24 in Week 4. Offense 27th, defense 30th by EPA per play. | 1–3 | −2.8 | 12% |
| 29 | up 2 | Cleveland BrownsBeat the Steelers 27–24 in Week 4. Offense 32nd, defense 20th by EPA per play. D.Watson at quarterback counts +1.8 points. | 3–1 | −3.3 | 40% |
| 30 | down 14 | Washington CommandersLost to the Colts 30–13 in Week 4. Offense 17th, defense 22nd by EPA per play. A.Kaliakmanis at quarterback counts −2.8 points. | 1–3 | −3.5 | 5% |
| 31 | down 1 | Tennessee TitansLost at the Ravens 24–18 in Week 4. Offense 29th, defense 26th by EPA per play. | 0–4 | −4.1 | <1% |
| 32 | no change | Tampa Bay BuccaneersLost to the Packers 17–14 in Week 4. Offense 24th, defense 7th by EPA per play. J.Daniels at quarterback counts −3.8 points. | 0–4 | −4.7 | 4% |
Rating: our model's points against an average team on a neutral field, from the team's opponent-adjusted EPA per play and its expected starting quarterback, using only games before Week 5. Move: places up or down from Week 4. Record: before Week 5. Playoffs: the team's playoff chance entering the week, from our 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
We play out the rest of the 2026 season 20,000 times, from the same starting number every time, so the same results and predictions always give the same chances.