Entering Week 6, the 49ers rate highest (+6.8 points against an average team on a neutral field), ahead of the Rams (+4.9) and the Bills (+3.9); the Titans (−5.5) are last.
Since Week 5, the Commanders rose the most, 10 places to 20th, and the Ravens fell the most, 13 places to 18th.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
| # | Move | Team | Record | Rating | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | no change | San Francisco 49ersWon at the Seahawks 32–29 in Week 5. Offense 2nd, defense 7th by EPA per play. B.Purdy at quarterback counts +1.5 points. | 5–0 | +6.8 | 99% |
| 2 | no change | Los Angeles RamsLost to the Bills 37–34 in Week 5. Offense 3rd, defense 5th by EPA per play. | 2–3 | +4.9 | 57% |
| 3 | up 1 | Buffalo BillsWon at the Rams 37–34 in Week 5. Offense 1st, defense 30th by EPA per play. | 4–1 | +3.9 | 90% |
| 4 | up 3 | New England PatriotsBeat the Raiders 45–17 in Week 5. Offense 6th, defense 15th by EPA per play. | 3–2 | +3.7 | 84% |
| 5 | down 2 | Kansas City ChiefsBye in Week 5. Offense 8th, defense 14th by EPA per play. P.Mahomes at quarterback counts +1.0 points. | 4–0 | +3.6 | 92% |
| 6 | no change | Jacksonville JaguarsBeat the Eagles 19–17 in Week 5. Offense 7th, defense 3rd by EPA per play. | 4–1 | +3.5 | 96% |
| 7 | up 4 | Green Bay PackersBeat the Bears 31–7 in Week 5. Offense 9th, defense 12th by EPA per play. | 3–2 | +3.2 | 52% |
| 8 | no change | Cincinnati BengalsWon at the Dolphins 31–24 in Week 5. Offense 13th, defense 16th by EPA per play. J.Burrow at quarterback counts +2.2 points. | 3–2 | +3.2 | 64% |
| 9 | up 4 | Detroit LionsWon at the Cardinals 45–21 in Week 5. Offense 4th, defense 31st by EPA per play. | 3–2 | +1.7 | 62% |
| 10 | down 1 | Seattle SeahawksLost to the 49ers 32–29 in Week 5. Offense 18th, defense 2nd by EPA per play. | 3–2 | +1.6 | 72% |
| 11 | up 4 | Houston TexansWon at the Titans 26–3 in Week 5. Offense 19th, defense 8th by EPA per play. C.Stroud at quarterback counts +1.2 points. | 1–4 | +1.4 | 14% |
| 12 | down 2 | Indianapolis ColtsLost at the Steelers 34–22 in Week 5. Offense 12th, defense 25th by EPA per play. D.Jones at quarterback counts +1.0 points. | 2–3 | +1.2 | 21% |
| 13 | down 1 | Dallas CowboysLost to the Buccaneers 24–16 in Week 5. Offense 5th, defense 32nd by EPA per play. | 2–3 | +1.2 | 27% |
| 14 | no change | Denver BroncosWon at the Chargers 23–17 in Week 5. Offense 14th, defense 9th by EPA per play. | 3–2 | +0.7 | 65% |
| 15 | up 1 | Carolina PanthersBye in Week 5. Offense 15th, defense 19th by EPA per play. | 2–2 | +0.2 | 56% |
| 16 | up 1 | Atlanta FalconsLost to the Ravens 30–23 in Week 5. Offense 23rd, defense 11th by EPA per play. | 2–3 | +0.1 | 36% |
| 17 | up 1 | Pittsburgh SteelersBeat the Colts 34–22 in Week 5. Offense 16th, defense 18th by EPA per play. | 3–2 | +0.1 | 49% |
| 18 | down 13 | Baltimore RavensWon at the Falcons 30–23 in Week 5. Offense 10th, defense 17th by EPA per play. T.Huntley at quarterback counts −2.6 points. | 4–1 | −0.2 | 70% |
| 19 | up 1 | Minnesota VikingsWon at the Saints 23–13 in Week 5. Offense 29th, defense 1st by EPA per play. K.Murray at quarterback counts +1.4 points. | 5–0 | −0.2 | 94% |
| 20 | up 10 | Washington CommandersTied the Giants 27–27 in Week 5. Offense 17th, defense 23rd by EPA per play. | 1–3–1 | −0.4 | 9% |
| 21 | up 2 | New York JetsBeat the Browns 17–12 in Week 5. Offense 28th, defense 4th by EPA per play. G.Smith at quarterback counts +1.2 points. | 2–3 | −1.5 | 9% |
| 22 | down 3 | Arizona CardinalsLost to the Lions 45–21 in Week 5. Offense 20th, defense 29th by EPA per play. | 1–4 | −1.7 | 1% |
| 23 | up 3 | New York GiantsTied the Commanders 27–27 in Week 5. Offense 21st, defense 22nd by EPA per play. | 3–1–1 | −1.8 | 46% |
| 24 | down 3 | Philadelphia EaglesLost to the Jaguars 19–17 in Week 5. Offense 24th, defense 24th by EPA per play. | 2–3 | −1.9 | 33% |
| 25 | down 3 | Los Angeles ChargersLost to the Broncos 23–17 in Week 5. Offense 27th, defense 6th by EPA per play. | 0–5 | −2.0 | <1% |
| 26 | down 2 | Las Vegas RaidersLost at the Patriots 45–17 in Week 5. Offense 30th, defense 21st by EPA per play. K.Cousins at quarterback counts +1.9 points. | 3–2 | −2.6 | 19% |
| 27 | no change | Miami DolphinsLost to the Bengals 31–24 in Week 5. Offense 25th, defense 26th by EPA per play. | 0–5 | −3.2 | <1% |
| 28 | no change | New Orleans SaintsLost to the Vikings 23–13 in Week 5. Offense 26th, defense 27th by EPA per play. | 1–4 | −3.3 | 8% |
| 29 | up 3 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersWon at the Cowboys 24–16 in Week 5. Offense 22nd, defense 10th by EPA per play. J.Daniels at quarterback counts −3.1 points. | 1–4 | −3.5 | 13% |
| 30 | down 5 | Chicago BearsLost at the Packers 31–7 in Week 5. Offense 11th, defense 20th by EPA per play. T.Bagent at quarterback counts −5.4 points. | 3–2 | −3.5 | 35% |
| 31 | down 2 | Cleveland BrownsLost at the Jets 17–12 in Week 5. Offense 32nd, defense 13th by EPA per play. D.Watson at quarterback counts +1.5 points. | 3–2 | −3.6 | 24% |
| 32 | down 1 | Tennessee TitansLost to the Texans 26–3 in Week 5. Offense 31st, defense 28th by EPA per play. | 0–5 | −5.5 | <1% |
Rating: our model's points against an average team on a neutral field, from the team's opponent-adjusted EPA per play and its expected starting quarterback, using only games before Week 6. Move: places up or down from Week 5. Record: before Week 6. Playoffs: the team's playoff chance entering the week, from our 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
We play out the rest of the 2026 season 20,000 times, from the same starting number every time, so the same results and predictions always give the same chances.