NFL Power Rankings Week 7 2026

Ranked by our rating: points against an average team on a neutral field, from each team's opponent-adjusted EPA per play and its expected starting quarterback, using only games before Week 7.

All 32 teams

#	Change	Team	Record	Rating	Offense	Defense	Week 7 game · our call	Playoffs
1	no change	San Francisco 49ers Rating +7.4 Offense rank 2 Defense rank 10 Week 7 game at Falcons, Sun, Oct 25 · 12:00 PM CT Our call 49ers Win chance 70% Playoff chance >99% Beat the Commanders 23–17 in Week 6. Offense 2nd, defense 10th by EPA per play. B.Purdy at quarterback counts +1.5 points. Team page Game page Beat the Model	6–0	+7.4	2	10	at ATL · 70% win chanceSun, Oct 25 · 12:00 PM CT · Our call: 49ers	>99%
2	up 4	Kansas City Chiefs Rating +4.5 Offense rank 8 Defense rank 5 Week 7 game at Seahawks, Sun, Oct 25 · 7:20 PM CT Our call Seahawks Win chance 47% Playoff chance 95% Beat the Chargers 22–6 in Week 6. Offense 8th, defense 5th by EPA per play. Team page Game page Beat the Model	5–0	+4.5	8	5	at SEA · 47% win chanceSun, Oct 25 · 7:20 PM CT · Our call: Seahawks	95%
3	down 1	Los Angeles Rams Rating +4.4 Offense rank 4 Defense rank 4 Week 7 game at Raiders, Sun, Oct 25 · 3:25 PM CT Our call Rams Win chance 63% Playoff chance 31% Lost to the Cardinals 18–16 in Week 6. Offense 4th, defense 4th by EPA per play. Team page Game page Beat the Model	2–4	+4.4	4	4	at LV · 63% win chanceSun, Oct 25 · 3:25 PM CT · Our call: Rams	31%
4	down 1	Buffalo Bills Rating +3.9 Offense rank 1 Defense rank 31 Playoff chance 92% Won at the Raiders 33–30 in Week 6. Offense 1st, defense 31st by EPA per play. Team page Beat the Model	5–1	+3.9	1	31	Bye	92%
5	down 1	Baltimore Ravens Rating +3.8 Offense rank 10 Defense rank 18 Week 7 game vs Bengals, Sun, Oct 25 · 12:00 PM CT Our call Bengals Win chance 49% Playoff chance 60% Lost at the Browns 13–10 in Week 6. Offense 10th, defense 18th by EPA per play. L.Jackson at quarterback counts +1.4 points. Team page Game page Beat the Model	4–2	+3.8	10	18	vs CIN · 49% win chanceSun, Oct 25 · 12:00 PM CT · Our call: Bengals	60%
6	down 1	New England Patriots Rating +3.8 Offense rank 6 Defense rank 17 Week 7 game at Bears, Thu, Oct 22 · 7:15 PM CT Our call Bears Win chance 47% Final L 24–30 Playoff chance 85% Beat the Jets 26–19 in Week 6. Offense 6th, defense 17th by EPA per play. Team page Game page Beat the Model	4–2	+3.8	6	17	at CHI · L 24–30 ✓Thu, Oct 22 · 7:15 PM CT · Our call: Bears	85%
7	up 23	Chicago Bears Rating +3.7 Offense rank 9 Defense rank 15 Week 7 game vs Patriots, Thu, Oct 22 · 7:15 PM CT Our call Bears Win chance 53% Final W 30–24 Playoff chance 70% Won at the Falcons 31–23 in Week 6. Offense 9th, defense 15th by EPA per play. C.Williams at quarterback counts +1.1 points. Team page Game page Beat the Model	4–2	+3.7	9	15	vs NE · W 30–24 ✓Thu, Oct 22 · 7:15 PM CT · Our call: Bears	70%
8	down 1	Jacksonville Jaguars Rating +3.6 Offense rank 5 Defense rank 14 Playoff chance 91% Lost to the Texans 34–31 in Week 6. Offense 5th, defense 14th by EPA per play. Team page Beat the Model	4–2	+3.6	5	14	Bye	91%
9	down 1	Green Bay Packers Rating +3.5 Offense rank 11 Defense rank 8 Week 7 game at Lions, Sun, Oct 25 · 3:25 PM CT Our call Lions Win chance 44% Playoff chance 62% Beat the Cowboys 23–13 in Week 6. Offense 11th, defense 8th by EPA per play. Team page Game page Beat the Model	4–2	+3.5	11	8	at DET · 44% win chanceSun, Oct 25 · 3:25 PM CT · Our call: Lions	62%
10	down 1	Cincinnati Bengals Rating +3.2 Offense rank 13 Defense rank 19 Week 7 game at Ravens, Sun, Oct 25 · 12:00 PM CT Our call Bengals Win chance 51% Playoff chance 59% Bye in Week 6. Offense 13th, defense 19th by EPA per play. J.Burrow at quarterback counts +2.2 points. Team page Game page Beat the Model	3–2	+3.2	13	19	at BAL · 51% win chanceSun, Oct 25 · 12:00 PM CT · Our call: Bengals	59%
11	down 1	Detroit Lions Rating +1.8 Offense rank 3 Defense rank 30 Week 7 game vs Packers, Sun, Oct 25 · 3:25 PM CT Our call Lions Win chance 56% Playoff chance 61% Bye in Week 6. Offense 3rd, defense 30th by EPA per play. Team page Game page Beat the Model	3–2	+1.8	3	30	vs GB · 56% win chanceSun, Oct 25 · 3:25 PM CT · Our call: Lions	61%
12	no change	Houston Texans Rating +1.7 Offense rank 15 Defense rank 16 Week 7 game vs Giants, Sun, Oct 25 · 12:00 PM CT Our call Texans Win chance 74% Playoff chance 29% Beat the Jaguars 34–31 in Week 6. Offense 15th, defense 16th by EPA per play. C.Stroud at quarterback counts +1.2 points. Team page Game page Beat the Model	2–4	+1.7	15	16	vs NYG · 74% win chanceSun, Oct 25 · 12:00 PM CT · Our call: Texans	29%
13	down 2	Seattle Seahawks Rating +1.6 Offense rank 19 Defense rank 2 Week 7 game vs Chiefs, Sun, Oct 25 · 7:20 PM CT Our call Seahawks Win chance 53% Playoff chance 63% Lost at the Broncos 17–14 in Week 6. Offense 19th, defense 2nd by EPA per play. Team page Game page Beat the Model	3–3	+1.6	19	2	vs KC · 53% win chanceSun, Oct 25 · 7:20 PM CT · Our call: Seahawks	63%
14	up 2	Carolina Panthers Rating +0.9 Offense rank 14 Defense rank 20 Week 7 game vs Buccaneers, Sun, Oct 25 · 12:00 PM CT Our call Panthers Win chance 60% Playoff chance 75% Won at the Eagles 25–14 in Week 6. Offense 14th, defense 20th by EPA per play. Team page Game page Beat the Model	3–2	+0.9	14	20	vs TB · 60% win chanceSun, Oct 25 · 12:00 PM CT · Our call: Panthers	75%
15	down 2	Indianapolis Colts Rating +0.8 Offense rank 12 Defense rank 24 Week 7 game at Vikings, Sun, Oct 25 · 12:00 PM CT Our call Vikings Win chance 33% Playoff chance 9% Lost to the Titans 26–20 in Week 6. Offense 12th, defense 24th by EPA per play. Team page Game page Beat the Model	2–4	+0.8	12	24	at MIN · 33% win chanceSun, Oct 25 · 12:00 PM CT · Our call: Vikings	9%
16	down 2	Dallas Cowboys Rating +0.6 Offense rank 7 Defense rank 32 Week 7 game at Eagles, Mon, Oct 26 · 7:15 PM CT Our call Cowboys Win chance 55% Playoff chance 30% Lost at the Packers 23–13 in Week 6. Offense 7th, defense 32nd by EPA per play. Team page Game page Beat the Model	2–4	+0.6	7	32	at PHI · 55% win chanceMon, Oct 26 · 7:15 PM CT · Our call: Cowboys	30%
17	down 2	Denver Broncos Rating +0.6 Offense rank 16 Defense rank 6 Week 7 game at Cardinals, Sun, Oct 25 · 3:05 PM CT Our call Broncos Win chance 64% Playoff chance 71% Beat the Seahawks 17–14 in Week 6. Offense 16th, defense 6th by EPA per play. Team page Game page Beat the Model	4–2	+0.6	16	6	at ARI · 64% win chanceSun, Oct 25 · 3:05 PM CT · Our call: Broncos	71%
18	no change	Pittsburgh Steelers Rating +0.2 Offense rank 20 Defense rank 11 Week 7 game vs Saints, Sun, Oct 25 · 8:30 AM CT Our call Steelers Win chance 62% Final W 16–10 Playoff chance 57% Won at the Buccaneers 26–19 in Week 6. Offense 20th, defense 11th by EPA per play. Team page Game page Beat the Model	4–2	+0.2	20	11	vs NO · W 16–10 ✓Sun, Oct 25 · 8:30 AM CT · Our call: Steelers	57%
19	up 1	Minnesota Vikings Rating −0.4 Offense rank 29 Defense rank 1 Week 7 game vs Colts, Sun, Oct 25 · 12:00 PM CT Our call Vikings Win chance 67% Playoff chance 94% Bye in Week 6. Offense 29th, defense 1st by EPA per play. K.Murray at quarterback counts +1.2 points. Team page Game page Beat the Model	5–0	−0.4	29	1	vs IND · 67% win chanceSun, Oct 25 · 12:00 PM CT · Our call: Vikings	94%
20	up 1	Washington Commanders Rating −0.7 Offense rank 17 Defense rank 28 Playoff chance 12% Lost at the 49ers 23–17 in Week 6. Offense 17th, defense 28th by EPA per play. Team page Beat the Model	1–4–1	−0.7	17	28	Bye	12%
21	down 4	Atlanta Falcons Rating −0.9 Offense rank 22 Defense rank 13 Week 7 game vs 49ers, Sun, Oct 25 · 12:00 PM CT Our call 49ers Win chance 30% Playoff chance 19% Lost to the Bears 31–23 in Week 6. Offense 22nd, defense 13th by EPA per play. Team page Game page Beat the Model	2–4	−0.9	22	13	vs SF · 30% win chanceSun, Oct 25 · 12:00 PM CT · Our call: 49ers	19%
22	no change	New York Jets Rating −1.1 Offense rank 27 Defense rank 7 Week 7 game vs Dolphins, Sun, Oct 25 · 12:00 PM CT Our call Jets Win chance 61% Playoff chance 6% Lost at the Patriots 26–19 in Week 6. Offense 27th, defense 7th by EPA per play. G.Smith at quarterback counts +1.4 points. Team page Game page Beat the Model	2–4	−1.1	27	7	vs MIA · 61% win chanceSun, Oct 25 · 12:00 PM CT · Our call: Jets	6%
23	no change	Arizona Cardinals Rating −1.4 Offense rank 18 Defense rank 29 Week 7 game vs Broncos, Sun, Oct 25 · 3:05 PM CT Our call Broncos Win chance 36% Playoff chance 3% Won at the Rams 18–16 in Week 6. Offense 18th, defense 29th by EPA per play. Team page Game page Beat the Model	2–4	−1.4	18	29	vs DEN · 36% win chanceSun, Oct 25 · 3:05 PM CT · Our call: Broncos	3%
24	no change	New York Giants Rating −2.3 Offense rank 21 Defense rank 21 Week 7 game at Texans, Sun, Oct 25 · 12:00 PM CT Our call Texans Win chance 26% Playoff chance 43% Lost to the Saints 34–27 in Week 6. Offense 21st, defense 21st by EPA per play. Team page Game page Beat the Model	3–2–1	−2.3	21	21	at HOU · 26% win chanceSun, Oct 25 · 12:00 PM CT · Our call: Texans	43%
25	up 2	Las Vegas Raiders Rating −2.4 Offense rank 28 Defense rank 22 Week 7 game vs Rams, Sun, Oct 25 · 3:25 PM CT Our call Rams Win chance 37% Playoff chance 11% Lost to the Bills 33–30 in Week 6. Offense 28th, defense 22nd by EPA per play. K.Cousins at quarterback counts +2.0 points. Team page Game page Beat the Model	3–3	−2.4	28	22	vs LA · 37% win chanceSun, Oct 25 · 3:25 PM CT · Our call: Rams	11%
26	no change	Los Angeles Chargers Rating −2.9 Offense rank 30 Defense rank 9 Playoff chance <1% Lost at the Chiefs 22–6 in Week 6. Offense 30th, defense 9th by EPA per play. Team page Beat the Model	0–6	−2.9	30	9	Bye	<1%
27	up 1	Miami Dolphins Rating −3.2 Offense rank 23 Defense rank 25 Week 7 game at Jets, Sun, Oct 25 · 12:00 PM CT Our call Jets Win chance 39% Playoff chance <1% Bye in Week 6. Offense 23rd, defense 25th by EPA per play. Team page Game page Beat the Model	0–5	−3.2	23	25	at NYJ · 39% win chanceSun, Oct 25 · 12:00 PM CT · Our call: Jets	<1%
28	up 1	New Orleans Saints Rating −3.3 Offense rank 26 Defense rank 26 Week 7 game vs Steelers, Sun, Oct 25 · 8:30 AM CT Our call Steelers Win chance 38% Final L 10–16 Playoff chance 12% Won at the Giants 34–27 in Week 6. Offense 26th, defense 26th by EPA per play. Team page Game page Beat the Model	2–4	−3.3	26	26	vs PIT · L 10–16 ✓Sun, Oct 25 · 8:30 AM CT · Our call: Steelers	12%
29	up 2	Cleveland Browns Rating −3.5 Offense rank 32 Defense rank 12 Week 7 game at Titans, Sun, Oct 25 · 12:00 PM CT Our call Browns Win chance 56% Playoff chance 35% Beat the Ravens 13–10 in Week 6. Offense 32nd, defense 12th by EPA per play. D.Watson at quarterback counts +1.4 points. Team page Game page Beat the Model	4–2	−3.5	32	12	at TEN · 56% win chanceSun, Oct 25 · 12:00 PM CT · Our call: Browns	35%
30	down 11	Tampa Bay Buccaneers Rating −4.0 Offense rank 24 Defense rank 3 Week 7 game at Panthers, Sun, Oct 25 · 12:00 PM CT Our call Panthers Win chance 40% Playoff chance 6% Lost to the Steelers 26–19 in Week 6. Offense 24th, defense 3rd by EPA per play. J.Daniels at quarterback counts −3.3 points. Team page Game page Beat the Model	1–5	−4.0	24	3	at CAR · 40% win chanceSun, Oct 25 · 12:00 PM CT · Our call: Panthers	6%
31	up 1	Tennessee Titans Rating −5.7 Offense rank 31 Defense rank 23 Week 7 game vs Browns, Sun, Oct 25 · 12:00 PM CT Our call Browns Win chance 44% Playoff chance <1% Won at the Colts 26–20 in Week 6. Offense 31st, defense 23rd by EPA per play. Team page Game page Beat the Model	1–5	−5.7	31	23	vs CLE · 44% win chanceSun, Oct 25 · 12:00 PM CT · Our call: Browns	<1%
32	down 7	Philadelphia Eagles Rating −7.3 Offense rank 25 Defense rank 27 Week 7 game vs Cowboys, Mon, Oct 26 · 7:15 PM CT Our call Cowboys Win chance 45% Playoff chance 18% Lost to the Panthers 25–14 in Week 6. Offense 25th, defense 27th by EPA per play. T.McKee at quarterback counts −4.2 points. Team page Game page Beat the Model	2–4	−7.3	25	27	vs DAL · 45% win chanceMon, Oct 26 · 7:15 PM CT · Our call: Cowboys	18%

Rating: our model's points against an average team on a neutral field, from the team's opponent-adjusted EPA per play and its expected starting quarterback, using only games before Week 7. Change: places up or down from Week 6. Offense and defense: the team's rank by EPA per play. Record: before Week 7. Our call and win chance: from our prediction for the game (how it is made). Playoffs: the team's playoff chance entering the week, from our 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

How the simulation works

We play out the rest of the 2026 season 20,000 times, from the same starting number every time, so the same results and predictions always give the same chances.

Each remaining regular-season game is won with our call's win chance from the prediction archive; games already played keep their real result. Simulated games never end tied.
Playoff games have no prediction yet, so they are decided by our model's power ratings, with home field for the higher seed (none in the Super Bowl).
Tiebreakers: head-to-head, division record, common games, conference record, strength of victory and strength of schedule are applied as the NFL applies them. Simplified: the steps on points and touchdowns are left out (simulated games have no scores), so a tie still level after strength of schedule goes to a coin toss; and a tie cut down to fewer teams starts again at the first step.
Draft order: ties go to the team with the easier schedule (lower strength of schedule), then a coin toss; the league's division and conference tiebreakers before the coin are left out.
0% means no simulation went that way and 100% that every one did; neither is a clinch or an elimination.

Explore this week

Week 7 predictions Schedule Scores Standings Injuries Scorecard Draft order Teams

Model	Winner right
Sagarin	1 of 1 · 100%
Sonny Moore	1 of 1 · 100%
Market	60.5 of 95 · 64%
SRS	58.5 of 93 · 63%
Consensus (our call)	59.5 of 95 · 63%
DRatings	59.5 of 95 · 63%