Entering Week 1, the Rams rate highest (+4.1 points against an average team on a neutral field), ahead of the Bills (+3.8) and the Patriots (+3.6); the Browns (−6.7) are last.
Reconstructed: these rankings were worked out after Week 1 began, from the games before it, the same way as every week.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
| # | Move | Team | Record | Rating | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | new | Los Angeles RamsNo 2026 games yet: rated on 2025's offense (1st) and the quarterback. | 0–0 | +4.1 | — |
| 2 | new | Buffalo BillsNo 2026 games yet: rated on 2025's offense (2nd) and the quarterback. | 0–0 | +3.8 | — |
| 3 | new | New England PatriotsNo 2026 games yet: rated on 2025's offense (3rd) and the quarterback. | 0–0 | +3.6 | — |
| 4 | new | Green Bay PackersNo 2026 games yet: rated on 2025's offense (5th) and the quarterback. | 0–0 | +3.6 | — |
| 5 | new | San Francisco 49ersNo 2026 games yet: rated on 2025's offense (4th) and the quarterback. | 0–0 | +3.3 | — |
| 6 | new | Dallas CowboysNo 2026 games yet: rated on 2025's offense (7th) and the quarterback. | 0–0 | +2.6 | — |
| 7 | new | Chicago BearsNo 2026 games yet: rated on 2025's offense (8th) and the quarterback. | 0–0 | +2.1 | — |
| 8 | new | Kansas City ChiefsNo 2026 games yet: rated on 2025's offense (10th) and the quarterback. Patrick Mahomes at quarterback counts +1.1 points. | 0–0 | +2.1 | — |
| 9 | new | Detroit LionsNo 2026 games yet: rated on 2025's offense (9th) and the quarterback. | 0–0 | +2.1 | — |
| 10 | new | Baltimore RavensNo 2026 games yet: rated on 2025's offense (13th) and the quarterback. | 0–0 | +1.6 | — |
| 11 | new | Cincinnati BengalsNo 2026 games yet: rated on 2025's offense (21st) and the quarterback. J.Burrow at quarterback counts +1.7 points. | 0–0 | +1.4 | — |
| 12 | new | Houston TexansNo 2026 games yet: rated on 2025's offense (20th) and the quarterback. C.Stroud at quarterback counts +1.2 points. | 0–0 | +1.0 | — |
| 13 | new | New York GiantsNo 2026 games yet: rated on 2025's offense (19th) and the quarterback. | 0–0 | +0.9 | — |
| 14 | new | Jacksonville JaguarsNo 2026 games yet: rated on 2025's offense (12th) and the quarterback. | 0–0 | +0.9 | — |
| 15 | new | Seattle SeahawksNo 2026 games yet: rated on 2025's offense (14th) and the quarterback. | 0–0 | +0.8 | — |
| 16 | new | Pittsburgh SteelersNo 2026 games yet: rated on 2025's offense (15th) and the quarterback. | 0–0 | +0.8 | — |
| 17 | new | Philadelphia EaglesNo 2026 games yet: rated on 2025's offense (17th) and the quarterback. | 0–0 | +0.5 | — |
| 18 | new | Washington CommandersNo 2026 games yet: rated on 2025's offense (16th) and the quarterback. | 0–0 | +0.4 | — |
| 19 | new | Tampa Bay BuccaneersNo 2026 games yet: rated on 2025's offense (18th) and the quarterback. | 0–0 | +0.1 | — |
| 20 | new | Arizona CardinalsNo 2026 games yet: rated on 2025's offense (22nd) and the quarterback. | 0–0 | −0.1 | — |
| 21 | new | Los Angeles ChargersNo 2026 games yet: rated on 2025's offense (23rd) and the quarterback. | 0–0 | −0.1 | — |
| 22 | new | Carolina PanthersNo 2026 games yet: rated on 2025's offense (26th) and the quarterback. | 0–0 | −1.0 | — |
| 23 | new | Indianapolis ColtsNo 2026 games yet: rated on 2025's offense (6th) and the quarterback. R.Leonard at quarterback counts −3.8 points. | 0–0 | −1.4 | — |
| 24 | new | New Orleans SaintsNo 2026 games yet: rated on 2025's offense (27th) and the quarterback. | 0–0 | −2.3 | — |
| 25 | new | Tennessee TitansNo 2026 games yet: rated on 2025's offense (29th) and the quarterback. | 0–0 | −3.5 | — |
| 26 | new | New York JetsNo 2026 games yet: rated on 2025's offense (30th) and the quarterback. | 0–0 | −3.5 | — |
| 27 | new | Minnesota VikingsNo 2026 games yet: rated on 2025's offense (28th) and the quarterback. | 0–0 | −3.6 | — |
| 28 | new | Atlanta FalconsNo 2026 games yet: rated on 2025's offense (24th) and the quarterback. Cooper Rush at quarterback counts −3.1 points. | 0–0 | −4.0 | — |
| 29 | new | Miami DolphinsNo 2026 games yet: rated on 2025's offense (25th) and the quarterback. Brady Cook at quarterback counts −4.5 points. | 0–0 | −5.4 | — |
| 30 | new | Denver BroncosNo 2026 games yet: rated on 2025's offense (11th) and the quarterback. J.Stidham at quarterback counts −6.3 points. | 0–0 | −5.5 | — |
| 31 | new | Las Vegas RaidersNo 2026 games yet: rated on 2025's offense (31st) and the quarterback. | 0–0 | −6.2 | — |
| 32 | new | Cleveland BrownsNo 2026 games yet: rated on 2025's offense (32nd) and the quarterback. | 0–0 | −6.7 | — |
Rating: our model's points against an average team on a neutral field, from the team's opponent-adjusted EPA per play and its expected starting quarterback, using only games before Week 1. Move: places up or down from Week 1. Record: before Week 1. Playoffs: the team's playoff chance entering the week, from our 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season (the simulation began after this week, so none is shown).
We play out the rest of the 2026 season 20,000 times, from the same starting number every time, so the same results and predictions always give the same chances.