All 32 teams
Rank, change since last week, rating bar (longer = stronger), and the one result that moved them.
| # | Team | Chg | Rating | This week | Next |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 49ers7–1 · net EPA 1st | no change | +8.8 | Beat the Raiders 38–17 in Week 9. Offense 1st, defense 7th by EPA per play. B.Purdy at quarterback counts +1.5 points. | at DALSun, Nov 15 · 3:25 PM CT |
| 2 | Jaguars6–2 · net EPA 3rd | up 1 | +6.3 | Won at the Ravens 33–10 in Week 9. Offense 5th, defense 4th by EPA per play. | at TENSun, Nov 15 · 12:00 PM CT |
| 3 | Rams5–4 · net EPA 2nd | down 1 | +6.3 | Won at the Commanders 20–13 in Week 9. Offense 6th, defense 3rd by EPA per play. | at ARISun, Nov 15 · 3:05 PM CT |
| 4 | Bills7–1 · net EPA 4th | no change | +6.1 | Won at the Vikings 23–6 in Week 9. Offense 2nd, defense 16th by EPA per play. | at NYJSun, Nov 15 · 12:00 PM CT |
| 5 | Bengals6–2 · net EPA 8th | no change | +5.7 | Beat the Falcons 34–17 in Week 9. Offense 9th, defense 19th by EPA per play. J.Burrow at quarterback counts +2.8 points. | vs PITSun, Nov 15 · 7:20 PM CT |
| 6 | Packers6–3 · net EPA 5th | up 1 | +5.4 | Won at the Patriots 45–27 in Week 9. Offense 11th, defense 6th by EPA per play. | vs MINSun, Nov 15 · 12:00 PM CT |
| 7 | Chiefs6–2 · net EPA 6th | up 1 | +5.2 | Beat the Jets 35–12 in Week 9. Offense 8th, defense 10th by EPA per play. | at ATLSun, Nov 15 · 12:00 PM CT |
| 8 | Bears7–2 · net EPA 7th | down 2 | +4.8 | Beat the Buccaneers 27–24 in Week 9. Offense 10th, defense 9th by EPA per play. C.Williams at quarterback counts +1.0 points. | Bye |
| 9 | Patriots5–4 · net EPA 9th | no change | +2.9 | Lost to the Packers 45–27 in Week 9. Offense 7th, defense 21st by EPA per play. | vs DETSun, Nov 15 · 8:30 AM CT |
| 10 | Buccaneers3–6 · net EPA 12th | no change | +2.3 | Lost at the Bears 27–24 in Week 9. Offense 24th, defense 1st by EPA per play. | Bye |
| 11 | Texans3–5 · net EPA 16th | up 4 | +2.2 | Won at the Chargers 44–22 in Week 9. Offense 12th, defense 17th by EPA per play. C.Stroud at quarterback counts +1.3 points. | at CLESun, Nov 15 · 12:00 PM CT |
| 12 | Lions6–2 · net EPA 11th | no change | +1.9 | Won at the Dolphins 19–9 in Week 9. Offense 4th, defense 28th by EPA per play. | vs NESun, Nov 15 · 8:30 AM CT |
| 13 | Broncos7–2 · net EPA 13th | up 1 | +1.3 | Won at the Panthers 26–21 in Week 9. Offense 13th, defense 11th by EPA per play. | Bye |
| 14 | Steelers6–2 · net EPA 14th | down 1 | +1.2 | Bye in Week 9. Offense 16th, defense 8th by EPA per play. | at CINSun, Nov 15 · 7:20 PM CT |
| 15 | Cowboys4–5 · net EPA 15th | up 1 | +1.2 | Won at the Colts 27–23 in Week 9. Offense 3rd, defense 32nd by EPA per play. | vs SFSun, Nov 15 · 3:25 PM CT |
| 16 | Panthers3–5 · net EPA 19th | up 3 | −0.2 | Lost to the Broncos 26–21 in Week 9. Offense 14th, defense 23rd by EPA per play. | at NOSun, Nov 15 · 12:00 PM CT |
| 17 | Commanders2–5–1 · net EPA 20th | up 3 | −0.7 | Lost to the Rams 20–13 in Week 9. Offense 19th, defense 20th by EPA per play. | at NYGThu, Nov 12 · 7:15 PM CT |
| 18 | Seahawks5–4 · net EPA 10th | down 7 | −1.3 | Beat the Cardinals 17–3 in Week 9. Offense 18th, defense 5th by EPA per play. D.Lock at quarterback counts −3.3 points. | at LVSun, Nov 15 · 3:05 PM CT |
| 19 | Giants5–2–1 · net EPA 17th | up 5 | −1.7 | Won at the Eagles 19–11 in Week 9. Offense 17th, defense 12th by EPA per play. J.McCarthy at quarterback counts −1.7 points. | vs WASThu, Nov 12 · 7:15 PM CT |
| 20 | Falcons3–6 · net EPA 21st | up 2 | −1.7 | Lost to the Bengals 34–17 in Week 9. Offense 23rd, defense 13th by EPA per play. | vs KCSun, Nov 15 · 12:00 PM CT |
| 21 | Jets2–7 · net EPA 25th | down 3 | −1.9 | Lost at the Chiefs 35–12 in Week 9. Offense 25th, defense 22nd by EPA per play. G.Smith at quarterback counts +1.8 points. | vs BUFSun, Nov 15 · 12:00 PM CT |
| 22 | Vikings6–2 · net EPA 22nd | down 5 | −2.4 | Lost to the Bills 23–6 in Week 9. Offense 31st, defense 2nd by EPA per play. | at GBSun, Nov 15 · 12:00 PM CT |
| 23 | Colts2–7 · net EPA 24th | down 2 | −2.5 | Lost to the Cowboys 27–23 in Week 9. Offense 21st, defense 25th by EPA per play. | vs MIASun, Nov 15 · 12:00 PM CT |
| 24 | Saints3–5 · net EPA 27th | up 3 | −3.5 | Beat the Browns 23–22 (OT) in Week 9. Offense 26th, defense 24th by EPA per play. | vs CARSun, Nov 15 · 12:00 PM CT |
| 25 | Dolphins1–7 · net EPA 26th | no change | −3.6 | Lost to the Lions 19–9 in Week 9. Offense 22nd, defense 29th by EPA per play. | at INDSun, Nov 15 · 12:00 PM CT |
| 26 | Raiders4–5 · net EPA 31st | no change | −4.5 | Lost at the 49ers 38–17 in Week 9. Offense 28th, defense 31st by EPA per play. K.Cousins at quarterback counts +1.4 points. | vs SEASun, Nov 15 · 3:05 PM CT |
| 27 | Ravens4–5 · net EPA 18th | up 1 | −4.9 | Lost to the Jaguars 33–10 in Week 9. Offense 15th, defense 18th by EPA per play. J.Fagnano at quarterback counts −4.6 points. | vs LACMon, Nov 16 · 7:15 PM CT |
| 28 | Chargers0–8 · net EPA 28th | up 2 | −5.1 | Lost to the Texans 44–22 in Week 9. Offense 30th, defense 14th by EPA per play. | at BALMon, Nov 16 · 7:15 PM CT |
| 29 | Cardinals3–6 · net EPA 23rd | down 6 | −5.8 | Lost at the Seahawks 17–3 in Week 9. Offense 20th, defense 27th by EPA per play. G.Minshew II at quarterback counts −2.9 points. | vs LASun, Nov 15 · 3:05 PM CT |
| 30 | Titans1–7 · net EPA 32nd | up 1 | −6.6 | Bye in Week 9. Offense 29th, defense 30th by EPA per play. | vs JAXSun, Nov 15 · 12:00 PM CT |
| 31 | Browns5–4 · net EPA 30th | down 2 | −6.9 | Lost at the Saints 23–22 (OT) in Week 9. Offense 32nd, defense 15th by EPA per play. S.Sanders at quarterback counts −1.1 points. | vs HOUSun, Nov 15 · 12:00 PM CT |
| 32 | Eagles2–7 · net EPA 29th | no change | −9.8 | Lost to the Giants 19–11 in Week 9. Offense 27th, defense 26th by EPA per play. J.Milton at quarterback counts −4.3 points. | Bye |
Rating: our model's points against an average team on a neutral field, from the team's opponent-adjusted EPA per play and its expected starting quarterback, using only games before Week 10. Change: places up or down from Week 9. Net EPA: the team's rank by offense minus defense EPA per play. Record: before Week 10.
Biggest moves
Since last week's rankings, and why.
Up
- Giants +5 to 19thWon at the Eagles 19–11 in Week 9. Offense 17th, defense 12th by EPA per play. J.McCarthy at quarterback counts −1.7 points.
- Texans +4 to 11thWon at the Chargers 44–22 in Week 9. Offense 12th, defense 17th by EPA per play. C.Stroud at quarterback counts +1.3 points.
- Panthers +3 to 16thLost to the Broncos 26–21 in Week 9. Offense 14th, defense 23rd by EPA per play.
Down
- Seahawks −7 to 18thBeat the Cardinals 17–3 in Week 9. Offense 18th, defense 5th by EPA per play. D.Lock at quarterback counts −3.3 points.
- Cardinals −6 to 29thLost at the Seahawks 17–3 in Week 9. Offense 20th, defense 27th by EPA per play. G.Minshew II at quarterback counts −2.9 points.
- Vikings −5 to 22ndLost to the Bills 23–6 in Week 9. Offense 31st, defense 2nd by EPA per play.
Record vs rating
Each dot is a team: across, its rank by record; down, its rank by our rating (1st top left). Off the diagonal: better or worse than the record says.
Better than their record: Buccaneers (3–6, 10th by rating), Rams (5–4, 3rd by rating), Texans (3–5, 11th by rating). Worse than their record: Browns (5–4, 31st by rating), Vikings (6–2, 22nd by rating), Broncos (7–2, 13th by rating).
Rank by week
How each team's rank changed this season, Weeks 1–10. Point at or tap a line (or its label) to bring it forward; it links to the team page.